4-0

That’s right I picked all 4 games….including the Jets over Chargers.

Sure there was a lot of luck involved in my picks but still I went 4-0.  I wasn’t truly sold on the Jets pick but the other 3 I was awfully confident about and I knew there would be one upset.  And everyone was so sure the Chargers were playing the best football but for some reason everyone forgot that the Chargers had the bye week just like the Saints, Vikings, and Colts who everyone kept asking if they were rusty.  But the Chargers were going to be fine?  Against the Jets defense?

Yeah, I am not surprised the Jets won.

Even better in my eyes is that BEFORE THE SEASON I picked the Saints and Colts for the Super Bowl.  Now obviously that hasn’t happened yet but just having the 2 teams still alive is an achievement in my book.

And EVEN more impressive…I actually had the Vikings vs Saints in the NFC Championship however I thought the Vikes would have had home field advantage.

On the AFC side I had Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship game so that isn’t so good.

This weekends games are going to be tough to pick.  Jets @ Colts and Vikings @ Saints.  If I had to pick right now I would surely go Colts/Saints but 2 things scare me…the Jets defense and Brett Favre.

I REALLY don’t want to hear 2 weeks about Favre so the Saints HAVE to win.

Cowboys @ Vikings (-2.5)

Interesting line in this game.  Typically home teams get 3 points so on a neutral field Vegas thinks the Cowboys would be better.  But this isn’t on a neutral field, it is in one of the toughest domes to play in in the NFL.

For many people this is a tossup game but I am pretty confident in my pick.  I have not been a Brett Favre fan all season.  Personally I think you take Adrian Peterson off this team and Favre throws almost 20 interceptions and the Vikings only go 9-7.  Even with both players they were in position to lose 2-3 games this season.

The Cowboys have been playing great of late.  They dominated everyone’s favorite team, the Philadelphia Eagles, and beat the Saints when the Saints were still good.  Tony Romo is supposedly playing the best football of his career and the running game is 3 deep and dominant.  And the Cowboys defense….wow…how good are they.  I mean you have the great pass rushers, the awesome linebackers, and the solid secondary.  Is there a weakness on this team?

Yes there is a weakness.  You know what that is…they just aren’t as good as everyone thinks.

Yes they beat the Saints when the Saints were still undefeated.  And yes they beat the Eagles twice.  The Saints had already clinched the division and had all but locked up home field throughout, they just didn’t have as much to play for.  When you have all but clinched your goals for the season you are surely going to slow down and slip a bit.  The Eagles were a mirage…simple as that.  They were quite possibly the most one dimensional team in the league with a beat up defense and a poor gameplan in both games.

The Cowboys can stop a running team OR a passing team but can they beat a team that does both very well?  Can they stop Peterson AND Favre.  I am not so sure.

Yes I know Peterson hasn’t done much in the second half of the season…so?  They haven’t had to truly play since about Thanksgiving.  When they needed to get up for a game they did…anyone remember the Packers games?  Just the threat of Peterson has to be acknowledged by the Cowboys defense which takes away from their pass coverage.  And that allows Favre to find Percy Harvin and Sidney Rice downfield, Chester Taylor out of the backfield, and Visanthe Shiancoe over the middle.

The Cowboys will have to outscore the Vikings and honestly I think the Cowboys offensive line will be overmatched.  The Vikings defensive line is the best in football.  The linebackers and secondary have had some injuries and are weakened a little bit but the defensive line is dominant.

KEY PLAYER:

Felix Jones – Cowboys RB

Marion Barber is banged up and while he will probably play he isn’t any more than a clock drainer.  And against the Vikings he won’t have more than 5o yards on 20 carries anyhow.  But Felix Jones is a game breaker.  Whether getting the ball on screens, kick returns, or taking handoffs he is a threat to go the distance every single time.  If he can get a few big plays the Cowboys might actually have a shot.  I think he might get his plays too.

MY PICK:

Like I said I am pretty confident in my pick.  The Cowboys are playing well right now while the Vikings are a little questionable.  But I don’t think the Cowboys can stop both the Vikings passing game and running game.

Vikings 24 Cowboys 21

Jets @ Chargers (-9)

Is anyone talking about the Jets here?  Nope.  Everyone thinks the Chargers are the best team in the NFL right now.  The Jets have a great defense and a good running game but the passing game leaves MUCH to be desired.  The Chargers have tall receivers and some name defensive players.  Okay so the Chargers have more than that but I am surprised at how good everyone thinks they are.

The Jets won last week in Cincinnati against a team that just can’t throw the ball of late.  The Chargers don’t have that problem.  But the Bengals can run the ball on anyone while the Chargers can’t.  Sure LaDainian Tomlinson is good but he isn’t what he was and Darren Sproles doesn’t get enough touches.

I honestly think the Jets could win this game.  They have the defense to slow down the Chargers but their offense needs to step up their game and make some plays.  The running game will be there but Mark Sanchez has to make a few plays to win this game.  He has made a few plays during the season but he has also made some huge mistakes.

KEY PLAYER:

Mark Sanchez – Jets QB

Like I mentioned above the Jets running game will get their yards.  The Chargers weren’t that good at stopping the run all season while the Jets run the ball all the time.  In order for the Jets to stay in the game Sanchez HAS to make 3-5 plays in the passing game.  It doesn’t have to be long touchdowns or long pass plays but there will be multiple 3rd and longs that he will have to get in order to keep drives alive.

MY PICK:

When looking for true upsets look towards the games that no one is talking about.  No one is giving the Jets a chance except the Jets.  But why not?  The Chargers haven’t stopped the run all season and they aren’t exactly dominating against the pass either.  The Jets pass defense has dominated top receivers ALL SEASON but now that the Chargers are the team everyone is talking about how tall and big the receivers are.  Really?  What did Randy Moss do against Darrelle Revis?  The pass defense will be okay and Rivers will turn the ball over 2 times to help the Jets cause.

Jets 23 Chargers 20

Cardinals @ Saints (-7)

The debate here is which team is ready to play.  The Cardinals?  Who just came off a ‘who can score more’ win against Green Bay in which neither defense did much until the Cardinals scored a defensive touchdown in overtime to win the game.  How about the Saints?  They had last week off after clinching the #1 seed in the NFC a few weeks ago.  For much of the season they were dominating and beating everyone but finished the season losing 3 straight games.  Which makes everyone question them.

I am torn on this game a bit.  You know a top seed is going to lose.  You aren’t going to see 1 vs 2 matchups in both the AFC and the NFC although that would be awesome.  I know the Saints are not a veteran playoff team having missed the playoffs the last 2 seasons but before that they did make it to the NFC Championship game with Drew Brees at quarterback.  And don’t forget that they do have Darren Sharper on defense who has played in a few big playoff games himself.

Also keep in mind that just because a team ‘backs in’ to the playoffs doesn’t mean they aren’t ready to go….remember the Cardinals last season?  Personally I think there are some definite similarities between the teams, great offenses, average defenses, locked up their divisions early, and are both doubted going into the playoffs.

But the Cardinals are playing well right now and have some momentum after last weeks game.  The Packers were considered a Super Bowl contender going into the game and the Cardinals dominated them for 3+ quarters.  Kurt Warner is playing in what could be his last playoffs and the Cardinals defense, last week not withstanding, was actually pretty good this season.

Here is my biggest concern for the Saints….they barely won multiple games this season.  Remember the Dolphins game?  Or the Redskins game?  They were in trouble in both before pulling it out at the end.  They have been living on the brink all season and could get pushed over this weekend.

KEY PLAYER:

Beanie Wells – Arizona RB

Beanie is the key to this game.  If the Cardinals can run on the Saints and they can change things up a bit they will win this game.  If the Cardinals line up and just throw the football all day the Saints will win because the defense will do more than the Packers defense and the Saints offense is as good as any in football.  If Wells gets his carries (and Hightower too) and can make something out of them the Cards will win.

MY PICK:

I don’t think they will run it enough.  The Cardinals will line up and try to beat the Saints through the air and it will backfire on them.  Darren Sharper will get a pick and Brees will play better than Warner as the Saints win at home.

Saints 34 Cardinals 24

Ravens @ Colts (-7)

This is the game everyone is picking as an upset.  Everyone thinks one of two things, either the Colts are going to be rusty and will lose or that the Colts just aren’t as good as their record and the Ravens play the kind of game that can beat them.

I disagree with BOTH of those ideas.  First of all the rest argument.  Yes I think the Colts might come out a little rusty but I don’t think it will be too noticeable.  The first year or two that the Colts did this sure it hurt them but Peyton and the rest of the offense knows what to do now.  You really think Peyton wasn’t all over his guys the past few weeks to make sure everything is ready to go?  Come on now.

The second argument, that the Ravens will run the ball all day long and Flacco will do enough and the defense can shut down the Colts….bull!  Does anyone remember a certain Monday night game early in the season in Miami?  Does anyone remember that the Dolphins ran the ball all game long and actually had the ball for 3 quarters of the game and still LOST?  Yeah, controlling the ball only works if your pass defense is good enough to stop the opposing offense.

And while the Ravens shut down the (injured) Patriots last week the Colts are NOT the Patriots this season.  Wes Welker was out, Randy Moss was injured, and Tom Brady is reportedly injured a bit.  Other than Anthony Gonzalez, who hasn’t played almost the entire season, they are healthy.  The Ravens secondary has been getting torn up all season and just because they managed to win one game with their defense last week now they are Super Bowl contenders??  Please.

I am sitting here listening to Colin Cowherd talk right now about how without Tony Dungy the Colts defense isn’t the same.  Really?  The Colts defense couldn’t stop the run for years under Dungy.  He is arguing that the Colts defense can’t stop anyone that Peyton has had to outscore everyone this season.  Really?  The Colts won 4 games this season scoring 4 or fewer points.  Meaning the defense had to stop someone.  Oh and that includes a victory over the Ravens.  The Colts defense held the opposition to UNDER 20 points in 1o games including games against the offenses of Arizona, Houston, Tennessee, and Baltimore.

So spare me that the Colts defense isn’t good.  No they aren’t the best in the league.  Sure they might be the worst of the 8 remaining teams but they have done enough this season.  Yes everyone knows the Colts are nothing without Peyton Manning which is why he has won 4 MVP trophies.  Because without Peyton the Colts only win 5-8 games a season at best.  But Peyton is there and he is ready to play right now.

KEY PLAYER:

Joe Flacco – Ravens QB

Sure the Ravens will run the ball during the game.  And they will have success doing it.  But Flacco will HAVE to make some big throws to win this game.  Can he do it?  He completed 4 passes last weekend.  He doesn’t have a lot of playmakers at wide receiver.  Really the best receiver is running back Ray Rice.  Just look to Philadelphia in the past 8 years to see what happens when your best receiver is a running back.  While the Colts pass defense isn’t great they are solid and will cause problems for Flacco.

MY PICK:

Flacco won’t make the plays.  Peyton will.  Colts will win.  The Colts defense will shut down the Ravens passing game and they will do more than the Patriots against the running game.  Which will be enough to win.

Colts 27 Ravens 16

Going into week 17 the Jets and Ravens had to win to be in and the Eagles only had to win to clinch the NFC East and a first round bye.  Well the Jets and Ravens won and will face Cincinnati and New England respectively.  But the Eagles…the stinking Eagles…couldn’t score a point and drop from the #2 position all the way to #6 and have to play the Cowboys in Dallas again next weekend.

Which brings me to the next point.  Next weekend we get to see 3 games that we saw this past weekend.  Eagles at the Cowboys, Packers at the Cardinals, and the Bengals hosting the Jets.  And the 4th game, Ravens at Patriots, was played earlier this season as well.  So not a single original matchup amongst the 4.

That isn’t always a bad thing but typically that is because division rivals are facing off in the playoffs.  Other than the Cowboys/Eagles none of the other games feature division rivals.  Sure Ravens/Patriots might be exciting but who wants to see Bengals/Jets or Packers/Cardinals?  I mean honestly.

Either way it is the NFL playoffs and we will all be watching.

To start the season I picked Saints/Colts so I will stick with those picks but neither of those teams are playing this weekend.

So who wins….

NY Jets at Cincinnati Bengals

The Jets dominated this past Sunday night and I don’t see that changing next weekend.  No I don’t think Mark Sanchez can lead this team deep into January nor can the defense carry them too far.  BUT the Bungals have been struggling of late and they will continue to do so.  Jets 23 Bengals 17

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

Dallas won both games this season including 24-0 just yesterday.  The game was closer than the score indicated as the Eagles blew multiple chances with blown plays, dropped passes, and stupid penalties while the Cowboys played an almost perfect game.  And winning 3 games over a team in one season is a tough thing to do.   I will surely be rooting for the Eagles this Saturday and have faith they can pull out the win but will pick the Cowboys here.  Cowboys 27 Eagles 17

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots

The Patriots are 8-0 at home this season but only 2-6 (one win in England) on the road.  Fortunately for them they are playing this game at home.  The Ravens barely got into the playoffs but they play a style of football that could see them hang around for a bit, solid defense with a ball control offense.  But this defense isn’t as good as last seasons and a good passing team can exploit them.  The Pats will.  Patriots 31 Ravens 20

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals

Last years surprise team hosting a team that embarrassed them this past weekend.  The Packers, in Arizona, beat the Cardinals 33-7 in a game that didn’t appear to be that close.  This is probably the toughest game to pick.  Some games the Pack seem like the team to beat and others weren’t nearly as convincing.  But the Cardinals were similar this season.  Some games looking the defending NFC Champs while at other times looking like the…well…Arizona Cardinals.  I see more Cardinals than NFC Champs in this team.  Packers 34 Cardinals 24

So there you go…

Jets and Pats

Boys and Pack

Packers (+1) @ Steelers

Let’s face it…the Steelers are over rated.  They have been terrible all season against the spread (3-10) and have been particularly bad the past 5 weeks (0-5).  At home they are only 2-4 while the Packers are 4-2 on the road.  I think the Steelers could pull this out but I will take the Pack to win in what equates to a pick-em.

Falcons @ Jets (-4.5)

This is a bit of a change from my original plan.  This really comes down to the weather.  It is going to be cold and windy in New York and with the Jets defense playing well again I don’t think Atlanta will be able to move the ball at all.

Texans (-10) @ Rams

The Rams are actually a respectable 6-7 against the spread this season but the Texans are an impressive 4-2 on the road and with the way they played last week and with the playoffs on the line (a reach but still alive) I think they come out and pound the Rams.

Bucs @ Seahawks (-7)

Seattle at home is always tough to beat even against good teams.  This game might actually be a reach but my decision is based on two things…one the Seahawks are at home and Tampa is no where near Seattle…and two the Seahawks are 3-1 in games they were favored to win this season.  Make it 4-1.

Giants @ Redskins (+3)

I have been burned multiple times by the Skins this season and if my memory serves me correct I am also 0-3 on Monday night.  But the Skins have been solid of late (5-0 ATS last 5 weeks) while the Giants have been terrible since week 5 (1-7 in last 8).

Last week I took 5 road teams and ended up 4-1.  This week it is more even and I intend to go 5-0 but I would accept 3-2 as I would be over .500 for the year.

Unfortunately I should have stopped after 2 weeks.  I started out 3-2, then went to 6-4, then to 8-7, and now I am 11-14 and would be in the red this season so far.

But that is all going to change over the next 4 weeks and the playoffs.  I will make it out of this season with a winning record or at least breaking even.

I have been picking 5 games each week and will continue to do so until the playoffs when I will instead just pick every game.

So here are my picks for week 14…..

Jets (-3) @ Bucs

First of all if you read my Power 12 page you will see that I like the Jets to actually win the division so winning this game is a must.  Second the Jets are 6-6 ATS this season and 3-3 on the road…nothing to write home about except that the Bucs are only 1-5 ATS at home.

Packers (-3) @ Bears

Really?  Only giving 3 points to the lowly Bears?  This surprises me a bit but when you look closer you can see that the Bears are actually better at home then on the road (3-3 ATS at home and 1-5 on the road) but the Packers are solid either place with a 7-4-1 ATS this season and 3-1-1 on the road.

Chargers (+3) @ Cowboys

If you look at the ATS records you will see that the Cowboys are 4-2 ATS at home while the Chargers are only 3-3 ATS on the road.  But call it a hunch I think the Cowboys implode down the stretch again this year.  Also remember that the Chargers are 5-2 in their last 7 ATS with the 2 losses in that stretch against Oakland in week 8 (-16.5) and Cleveland in week 13 (-13).

Cardinals (-3.5) @ 49ers

The 49ers are actually a very respectable 8-3-1 ATS this season.  But 5-0-1 of that are on the road.  At home they struggle a bit more and are still a solid 3-3 but the Cardinals are 4-2 ATS on the road.  Being that it is only 3.5 I feel confident in the Cards this week.

Dolphins (+2.5) @ Jaguars

This was my toughest pick of the week.  I looked at 9 of the 15 games for Sunday and Monday and this is one that I am more confident in compared to others but not by much.  Miami is 3-3 ATS on the road while the Jags are just 2-4 ATS at home.

So there you go…those are my picks.   Hopefully I can go at least 4-1 and get back to .500 on the season but I am obviously shooting for 5-0.   Oh and I just realized that I took all road teams this week.  Not sure what that means but oh well.