Well last week was pretty good.  I managed to go 4-1 and now rest at 15-15 on the season (I started late).  This week is a tough one and I am figuring out my picks as I type this…literally…so bear with me.

Packers (+1) @ Steelers

Let’s face it…the Steelers are over rated.  They have been terrible all season against the spread (3-10) and have been particularly bad the past 5 weeks (0-5).  At home they are only 2-4 while the Packers are 4-2 on the road.  I think the Steelers could pull this out but I will take the Pack to win in what equates to a pick-em.

Falcons @ Jets (-4.5)

This is a bit of a change from my original plan.  This really comes down to the weather.  It is going to be cold and windy in New York and with the Jets defense playing well again I don’t think Atlanta will be able to move the ball at all.

Texans (-10) @ Rams

The Rams are actually a respectable 6-7 against the spread this season but the Texans are an impressive 4-2 on the road and with the way they played last week and with the playoffs on the line (a reach but still alive) I think they come out and pound the Rams.

Bucs @ Seahawks (-7)

Seattle at home is always tough to beat even against good teams.  This game might actually be a reach but my decision is based on two things…one the Seahawks are at home and Tampa is no where near Seattle…and two the Seahawks are 3-1 in games they were favored to win this season.  Make it 4-1.

Giants @ Redskins (+3)

I have been burned multiple times by the Skins this season and if my memory serves me correct I am also 0-3 on Monday night.  But the Skins have been solid of late (5-0 ATS last 5 weeks) while the Giants have been terrible since week 5 (1-7 in last 8).

Last week I took 5 road teams and ended up 4-1.  This week it is more even and I intend to go 5-0 but I would accept 3-2 as I would be over .500 for the year.

First things first…I am not exactly great at this yet.  I am trying to let the wife let me gamble for real money but she insists that I can’t and won’t let me.  So I have been picking games the past 5 weeks to try and show her that I actually know what I am talking about.

Unfortunately I should have stopped after 2 weeks.  I started out 3-2, then went to 6-4, then to 8-7, and now I am 11-14 and would be in the red this season so far.

But that is all going to change over the next 4 weeks and the playoffs.  I will make it out of this season with a winning record or at least breaking even.

I have been picking 5 games each week and will continue to do so until the playoffs when I will instead just pick every game.

So here are my picks for week 14…..

Jets (-3) @ Bucs

First of all if you read my Power 12 page you will see that I like the Jets to actually win the division so winning this game is a must.  Second the Jets are 6-6 ATS this season and 3-3 on the road…nothing to write home about except that the Bucs are only 1-5 ATS at home.

Packers (-3) @ Bears

Really?  Only giving 3 points to the lowly Bears?  This surprises me a bit but when you look closer you can see that the Bears are actually better at home then on the road (3-3 ATS at home and 1-5 on the road) but the Packers are solid either place with a 7-4-1 ATS this season and 3-1-1 on the road.

Chargers (+3) @ Cowboys

If you look at the ATS records you will see that the Cowboys are 4-2 ATS at home while the Chargers are only 3-3 ATS on the road.  But call it a hunch I think the Cowboys implode down the stretch again this year.  Also remember that the Chargers are 5-2 in their last 7 ATS with the 2 losses in that stretch against Oakland in week 8 (-16.5) and Cleveland in week 13 (-13).

Cardinals (-3.5) @ 49ers

The 49ers are actually a very respectable 8-3-1 ATS this season.  But 5-0-1 of that are on the road.  At home they struggle a bit more and are still a solid 3-3 but the Cardinals are 4-2 ATS on the road.  Being that it is only 3.5 I feel confident in the Cards this week.

Dolphins (+2.5) @ Jaguars

This was my toughest pick of the week.  I looked at 9 of the 15 games for Sunday and Monday and this is one that I am more confident in compared to others but not by much.  Miami is 3-3 ATS on the road while the Jags are just 2-4 ATS at home.

So there you go…those are my picks.   Hopefully I can go at least 4-1 and get back to .500 on the season but I am obviously shooting for 5-0.   Oh and I just realized that I took all road teams this week.  Not sure what that means but oh well.