Of all the possible outcomes this weekend a Jets vs Vikings matchup would be horrible to tolerate for 2 weeks.  First of all and this will be terrible is if we have to listen to all the sports announcers and analysts kiss Brett Favre’s ass for 2 weeks.  And you know it will happen.  Sure all of them hated him in August but once he started winning they started heading further and further up Favre’s ass.

Second do we really want to hear about how Brett played for the Jets last year and the players didn’t like him and are out to get revenge?  Hell no.  I don’t want to hear ONE SINGLE word about Brett Favre after the game recaps on Monday/Tuesday next week.  After that I don’t want Favre’s name mentioned until he starts his annual retiring/unretiring act that he has perfected.

So I am rooting for the Colts (who I think will win) and the Saints (who I picked before the season to win).

Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints (-3.5)

Minnesota embarrassed Dallas last weekend.  Dallas was considered by many to be the hottest team in football and playing better than anyone else after their huge wins (sarcasm intended) over Washington and then twice over Philly.  Wow…how good were the Cowboys?  So now the question has to be…how good are the Vikings?

Well I will tell you…not that good.  Especially on the road.  Did you know…Minnesota is only 4-4 on the road this season with their victories coming over Detroit, Green Bay, Cleveland, and St. Louis.  Wow…not a really impressive grouping.  When the played a good team on the road they lost, Arizona, Pittsburgh, Carolina, and Chicago.  So already the Vikings are in trouble.  Add to that how good the Saints are at home.  Sure they lost their last 2, against Dallas and Tampa but won every other game.  And anyone will tell you that the Superdome is one of the hardest places to play.

But the Vikings have Favre and Adrian Peterson.  So they will obviously be okay.  And their defensive line is awesome so the Saints can’t…blah blah blah.  Peterson hasn’t had a 100 yard running game since week 10 against Detroit.  Even more amazing than that though is he has only averaged OVER 4 yards per carry in 1 game since the Detroit game, and that was week 17 against the nothing to play for Giants.

So Peterson is an average weapon right now.

On to Brett Favre.

The Saints pass defense is 4th in the league in completion percentage allowed (57.5%).  They are 3rd in interceptions with 26.  They have allowed the 5th fewest passing touchdowns all season (15).

All very impressive numbers.  Now lets consider what teams compare to the Saints in those categories….not too many.  The Bills and Jets are probably the closest two.  But the Packers weren’t bad either although they allowed twice as many touchdown passes as the Saints.  Basically what I am saying is that the Vikings have NOT played a defense like the Saints yet this season.

Now let’s look at this game from the other side.

Minnesota allows the 8th highest completion percentage in the league (63.7).  They have only intercepted 11 passes this season, good for 4th fewest.  They have allowed 26 passing touchdown passes which is 10th most in the league.  But they are good at stopping the run, top 5 or 10 in most categories including per rush average, per game total, and touchdowns allowed.

BUT two of their defensive linemen are injured and while they will surely play this weekend they won’t be 100%, Kevin Williams and Ray Edwards.  And many of those impressive running numbers came with middle linebacker E.J. Henderson in the lineup.  He has been out for a few weeks now and won’t be back this weekend so that surely doesn’t hurt.

Drew Brees and the Saints passing game is one of the best in the NFL.  And their running game is also one of the best in the NFL.  So which do you stop if you are the Vikings?  Last week it was easy, while the Cowboys running game is very good, the Dallas passing game makes that team go.  I would say for the Saints both units carry their own weight.  Brees will throw on you if you stack the line while they will also run the ball if you drop 8 into coverage.

Either way I can’t possibly pick against the Saints after picking them in August.  But don’t expect as much of a shootout as some think.  I would imagine it will be an average game with a few punts from both teams and plenty of field goals.

Saints 30 Vikings 20

4-0

That’s right I picked all 4 games….including the Jets over Chargers.

Sure there was a lot of luck involved in my picks but still I went 4-0.  I wasn’t truly sold on the Jets pick but the other 3 I was awfully confident about and I knew there would be one upset.  And everyone was so sure the Chargers were playing the best football but for some reason everyone forgot that the Chargers had the bye week just like the Saints, Vikings, and Colts who everyone kept asking if they were rusty.  But the Chargers were going to be fine?  Against the Jets defense?

Yeah, I am not surprised the Jets won.

Even better in my eyes is that BEFORE THE SEASON I picked the Saints and Colts for the Super Bowl.  Now obviously that hasn’t happened yet but just having the 2 teams still alive is an achievement in my book.

And EVEN more impressive…I actually had the Vikings vs Saints in the NFC Championship however I thought the Vikes would have had home field advantage.

On the AFC side I had Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship game so that isn’t so good.

This weekends games are going to be tough to pick.  Jets @ Colts and Vikings @ Saints.  If I had to pick right now I would surely go Colts/Saints but 2 things scare me…the Jets defense and Brett Favre.

I REALLY don’t want to hear 2 weeks about Favre so the Saints HAVE to win.

Cowboys @ Vikings (-2.5)

Interesting line in this game.  Typically home teams get 3 points so on a neutral field Vegas thinks the Cowboys would be better.  But this isn’t on a neutral field, it is in one of the toughest domes to play in in the NFL.

For many people this is a tossup game but I am pretty confident in my pick.  I have not been a Brett Favre fan all season.  Personally I think you take Adrian Peterson off this team and Favre throws almost 20 interceptions and the Vikings only go 9-7.  Even with both players they were in position to lose 2-3 games this season.

The Cowboys have been playing great of late.  They dominated everyone’s favorite team, the Philadelphia Eagles, and beat the Saints when the Saints were still good.  Tony Romo is supposedly playing the best football of his career and the running game is 3 deep and dominant.  And the Cowboys defense….wow…how good are they.  I mean you have the great pass rushers, the awesome linebackers, and the solid secondary.  Is there a weakness on this team?

Yes there is a weakness.  You know what that is…they just aren’t as good as everyone thinks.

Yes they beat the Saints when the Saints were still undefeated.  And yes they beat the Eagles twice.  The Saints had already clinched the division and had all but locked up home field throughout, they just didn’t have as much to play for.  When you have all but clinched your goals for the season you are surely going to slow down and slip a bit.  The Eagles were a mirage…simple as that.  They were quite possibly the most one dimensional team in the league with a beat up defense and a poor gameplan in both games.

The Cowboys can stop a running team OR a passing team but can they beat a team that does both very well?  Can they stop Peterson AND Favre.  I am not so sure.

Yes I know Peterson hasn’t done much in the second half of the season…so?  They haven’t had to truly play since about Thanksgiving.  When they needed to get up for a game they did…anyone remember the Packers games?  Just the threat of Peterson has to be acknowledged by the Cowboys defense which takes away from their pass coverage.  And that allows Favre to find Percy Harvin and Sidney Rice downfield, Chester Taylor out of the backfield, and Visanthe Shiancoe over the middle.

The Cowboys will have to outscore the Vikings and honestly I think the Cowboys offensive line will be overmatched.  The Vikings defensive line is the best in football.  The linebackers and secondary have had some injuries and are weakened a little bit but the defensive line is dominant.

KEY PLAYER:

Felix Jones – Cowboys RB

Marion Barber is banged up and while he will probably play he isn’t any more than a clock drainer.  And against the Vikings he won’t have more than 5o yards on 20 carries anyhow.  But Felix Jones is a game breaker.  Whether getting the ball on screens, kick returns, or taking handoffs he is a threat to go the distance every single time.  If he can get a few big plays the Cowboys might actually have a shot.  I think he might get his plays too.

MY PICK:

Like I said I am pretty confident in my pick.  The Cowboys are playing well right now while the Vikings are a little questionable.  But I don’t think the Cowboys can stop both the Vikings passing game and running game.

Vikings 24 Cowboys 21

Jets @ Chargers (-9)

Is anyone talking about the Jets here?  Nope.  Everyone thinks the Chargers are the best team in the NFL right now.  The Jets have a great defense and a good running game but the passing game leaves MUCH to be desired.  The Chargers have tall receivers and some name defensive players.  Okay so the Chargers have more than that but I am surprised at how good everyone thinks they are.

The Jets won last week in Cincinnati against a team that just can’t throw the ball of late.  The Chargers don’t have that problem.  But the Bengals can run the ball on anyone while the Chargers can’t.  Sure LaDainian Tomlinson is good but he isn’t what he was and Darren Sproles doesn’t get enough touches.

I honestly think the Jets could win this game.  They have the defense to slow down the Chargers but their offense needs to step up their game and make some plays.  The running game will be there but Mark Sanchez has to make a few plays to win this game.  He has made a few plays during the season but he has also made some huge mistakes.

KEY PLAYER:

Mark Sanchez – Jets QB

Like I mentioned above the Jets running game will get their yards.  The Chargers weren’t that good at stopping the run all season while the Jets run the ball all the time.  In order for the Jets to stay in the game Sanchez HAS to make 3-5 plays in the passing game.  It doesn’t have to be long touchdowns or long pass plays but there will be multiple 3rd and longs that he will have to get in order to keep drives alive.

MY PICK:

When looking for true upsets look towards the games that no one is talking about.  No one is giving the Jets a chance except the Jets.  But why not?  The Chargers haven’t stopped the run all season and they aren’t exactly dominating against the pass either.  The Jets pass defense has dominated top receivers ALL SEASON but now that the Chargers are the team everyone is talking about how tall and big the receivers are.  Really?  What did Randy Moss do against Darrelle Revis?  The pass defense will be okay and Rivers will turn the ball over 2 times to help the Jets cause.

Jets 23 Chargers 20

Cardinals @ Saints (-7)

The debate here is which team is ready to play.  The Cardinals?  Who just came off a ‘who can score more’ win against Green Bay in which neither defense did much until the Cardinals scored a defensive touchdown in overtime to win the game.  How about the Saints?  They had last week off after clinching the #1 seed in the NFC a few weeks ago.  For much of the season they were dominating and beating everyone but finished the season losing 3 straight games.  Which makes everyone question them.

I am torn on this game a bit.  You know a top seed is going to lose.  You aren’t going to see 1 vs 2 matchups in both the AFC and the NFC although that would be awesome.  I know the Saints are not a veteran playoff team having missed the playoffs the last 2 seasons but before that they did make it to the NFC Championship game with Drew Brees at quarterback.  And don’t forget that they do have Darren Sharper on defense who has played in a few big playoff games himself.

Also keep in mind that just because a team ‘backs in’ to the playoffs doesn’t mean they aren’t ready to go….remember the Cardinals last season?  Personally I think there are some definite similarities between the teams, great offenses, average defenses, locked up their divisions early, and are both doubted going into the playoffs.

But the Cardinals are playing well right now and have some momentum after last weeks game.  The Packers were considered a Super Bowl contender going into the game and the Cardinals dominated them for 3+ quarters.  Kurt Warner is playing in what could be his last playoffs and the Cardinals defense, last week not withstanding, was actually pretty good this season.

Here is my biggest concern for the Saints….they barely won multiple games this season.  Remember the Dolphins game?  Or the Redskins game?  They were in trouble in both before pulling it out at the end.  They have been living on the brink all season and could get pushed over this weekend.

KEY PLAYER:

Beanie Wells – Arizona RB

Beanie is the key to this game.  If the Cardinals can run on the Saints and they can change things up a bit they will win this game.  If the Cardinals line up and just throw the football all day the Saints will win because the defense will do more than the Packers defense and the Saints offense is as good as any in football.  If Wells gets his carries (and Hightower too) and can make something out of them the Cards will win.

MY PICK:

I don’t think they will run it enough.  The Cardinals will line up and try to beat the Saints through the air and it will backfire on them.  Darren Sharper will get a pick and Brees will play better than Warner as the Saints win at home.

Saints 34 Cardinals 24

Ravens @ Colts (-7)

This is the game everyone is picking as an upset.  Everyone thinks one of two things, either the Colts are going to be rusty and will lose or that the Colts just aren’t as good as their record and the Ravens play the kind of game that can beat them.

I disagree with BOTH of those ideas.  First of all the rest argument.  Yes I think the Colts might come out a little rusty but I don’t think it will be too noticeable.  The first year or two that the Colts did this sure it hurt them but Peyton and the rest of the offense knows what to do now.  You really think Peyton wasn’t all over his guys the past few weeks to make sure everything is ready to go?  Come on now.

The second argument, that the Ravens will run the ball all day long and Flacco will do enough and the defense can shut down the Colts….bull!  Does anyone remember a certain Monday night game early in the season in Miami?  Does anyone remember that the Dolphins ran the ball all game long and actually had the ball for 3 quarters of the game and still LOST?  Yeah, controlling the ball only works if your pass defense is good enough to stop the opposing offense.

And while the Ravens shut down the (injured) Patriots last week the Colts are NOT the Patriots this season.  Wes Welker was out, Randy Moss was injured, and Tom Brady is reportedly injured a bit.  Other than Anthony Gonzalez, who hasn’t played almost the entire season, they are healthy.  The Ravens secondary has been getting torn up all season and just because they managed to win one game with their defense last week now they are Super Bowl contenders??  Please.

I am sitting here listening to Colin Cowherd talk right now about how without Tony Dungy the Colts defense isn’t the same.  Really?  The Colts defense couldn’t stop the run for years under Dungy.  He is arguing that the Colts defense can’t stop anyone that Peyton has had to outscore everyone this season.  Really?  The Colts won 4 games this season scoring 4 or fewer points.  Meaning the defense had to stop someone.  Oh and that includes a victory over the Ravens.  The Colts defense held the opposition to UNDER 20 points in 1o games including games against the offenses of Arizona, Houston, Tennessee, and Baltimore.

So spare me that the Colts defense isn’t good.  No they aren’t the best in the league.  Sure they might be the worst of the 8 remaining teams but they have done enough this season.  Yes everyone knows the Colts are nothing without Peyton Manning which is why he has won 4 MVP trophies.  Because without Peyton the Colts only win 5-8 games a season at best.  But Peyton is there and he is ready to play right now.

KEY PLAYER:

Joe Flacco – Ravens QB

Sure the Ravens will run the ball during the game.  And they will have success doing it.  But Flacco will HAVE to make some big throws to win this game.  Can he do it?  He completed 4 passes last weekend.  He doesn’t have a lot of playmakers at wide receiver.  Really the best receiver is running back Ray Rice.  Just look to Philadelphia in the past 8 years to see what happens when your best receiver is a running back.  While the Colts pass defense isn’t great they are solid and will cause problems for Flacco.

MY PICK:

Flacco won’t make the plays.  Peyton will.  Colts will win.  The Colts defense will shut down the Ravens passing game and they will do more than the Patriots against the running game.  Which will be enough to win.

Colts 27 Ravens 16

Unfortunately it was one of the more boring playoff weekends that I can remember.  The Jets/Bengals game was somewhat close but not very interesting as the Jets controlled the game from the start.  The Cowboys/Eagles game was only interesting if you are a Cowboys fan as the Eagles didn’t really show up.  I had the game on but was busy doing other things as I couldn’t watch that crap.  The Ravens/Pats game was a blowout from the opening gun but not in the way any one imagined.  Baltimore opened up a 24-0 lead in the first quarter and ran the ball the rest of the game.

But we were all saved by the Cardinals/Packers game.  Although for the first half it was no more interesting than the Ravens/Pats game as the Cards controlled the play.  But over the final quarter and a half the Packers came alive and it turned into an amazing game.

I thought the Packers were going to win from the very start and considering some of the calls during the game how the Cardinals didn’t get a roughing the passer penalty on the last play I will never know.  But they didn’t and the Cardinals won.  Now they head to New Orleans to challenge another team that heavily favors the pass.

So lets look at the matchups:

Arizona @ New Orleans

Everyone is talking about the Saints and how they haven’t really played well down the stretch.  But what did they have to play for?  Didn’t we all question the Cardinals last year in the same way?  They struggled mightily before getting into the postseason and going all the way to the Super Bowl.  The Saints are a similar team to last season’s Cardinals and don’t think for a minute that Drew Brees and Darren Sharper won’t have that team ready to play.

The Cardinals played the late game on Sunday which didn’t finish until around 8pm Eastern time.  Now they have to play the early game on Saturday in New Orleans….not easy.  Everyone thinks this game will be a shootout but I am not so sure.  I think Warner throws a couple picks and the Saints take control.

Ravens @ Colts

Another rematch from a few weeks ago.  The Colts won that game 17-15 as the Ravens couldn’t put the ball in the endzone.  The Colts haven’t had a meaningful game since Thanksgiving and that has cost them in the past.  When the starters sat out most of weeks 16 and 17 it started to worry me a bit.  Although if the defense got healthy with that week off and the rest the earlier weeks should help them against the Ravens.

The Ravens are coming in with lots of momentum after dominating the Patriots but the Colts aren’t the Pats.  They have all their weapons healthy unlike the Patriots last week.  And you aren’t going to see an 83 yard touchdown run right away against the Colts defense.   But momentum is a powerful thing and the Ravens are confident they can win.

Cowboys @ Vikings

All this talk about how good the Cowboys are playing.  Really?  Let’s look at it.  The won at a New Orleans team that wasn’t playing their best anymore as they had locked up a top 2 seed in the playoffs.  Then they won at Washington…wow that is difficult.  Then they beat the Eagles twice at home.  Sure those were dominating performances.  But the Cowboys were built to beat the Eagles this season.  The Eagles have been struggling with injuries since training camp and their defense was weakened as was the offensive line.

Add to that the fact that Philly only throws the ball and they played right into the Cowboys hands.  But the Vikings have the threat of Adrian Peterson.  And then they have Brett Favre.  While the Eagles were very one dimensional the Vikings are very two dimensional.  Which way does the Cowboys defense focus?  Do they shut down Peterson and risk Favre beating them?  Or do they shut down the passing game and hope Peterson doesn’t get rolling?

Jets @ Chargers

This game is being discussed the least as I think most people figure the Chargers are too good to lose.  I mean they are everyone’s pick to make the Super Bowl.  I was reading the Sporting News yesterday and I think it was 5 of the 6 analysts had picked the Chargers to make the Super Bowl.  But if I am the Chargers I would rather have seen the Patriots in this game.

The Jets stop the run, they stop the pass, and they run the ball.  All the ingredients to win in the postseason no matter what stadium they are playing in.  If the Chargers get frustrated early you will see it on Philip Rivers face and in his play.  He WILL turn the ball over if the Jets can get out to a good start against him.  Personally I think while this isn’t the most interesting game of the weekend right now it might be the best game of the weekend to watch.

I will have my picks later this week (since its already Thursday I don’t think you will have to wait long) so check back then.

Going into week 17 the Jets and Ravens had to win to be in and the Eagles only had to win to clinch the NFC East and a first round bye.  Well the Jets and Ravens won and will face Cincinnati and New England respectively.  But the Eagles…the stinking Eagles…couldn’t score a point and drop from the #2 position all the way to #6 and have to play the Cowboys in Dallas again next weekend.

Which brings me to the next point.  Next weekend we get to see 3 games that we saw this past weekend.  Eagles at the Cowboys, Packers at the Cardinals, and the Bengals hosting the Jets.  And the 4th game, Ravens at Patriots, was played earlier this season as well.  So not a single original matchup amongst the 4.

That isn’t always a bad thing but typically that is because division rivals are facing off in the playoffs.  Other than the Cowboys/Eagles none of the other games feature division rivals.  Sure Ravens/Patriots might be exciting but who wants to see Bengals/Jets or Packers/Cardinals?  I mean honestly.

Either way it is the NFL playoffs and we will all be watching.

To start the season I picked Saints/Colts so I will stick with those picks but neither of those teams are playing this weekend.

So who wins….

NY Jets at Cincinnati Bengals

The Jets dominated this past Sunday night and I don’t see that changing next weekend.  No I don’t think Mark Sanchez can lead this team deep into January nor can the defense carry them too far.  BUT the Bungals have been struggling of late and they will continue to do so.  Jets 23 Bengals 17

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

Dallas won both games this season including 24-0 just yesterday.  The game was closer than the score indicated as the Eagles blew multiple chances with blown plays, dropped passes, and stupid penalties while the Cowboys played an almost perfect game.  And winning 3 games over a team in one season is a tough thing to do.   I will surely be rooting for the Eagles this Saturday and have faith they can pull out the win but will pick the Cowboys here.  Cowboys 27 Eagles 17

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots

The Patriots are 8-0 at home this season but only 2-6 (one win in England) on the road.  Fortunately for them they are playing this game at home.  The Ravens barely got into the playoffs but they play a style of football that could see them hang around for a bit, solid defense with a ball control offense.  But this defense isn’t as good as last seasons and a good passing team can exploit them.  The Pats will.  Patriots 31 Ravens 20

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals

Last years surprise team hosting a team that embarrassed them this past weekend.  The Packers, in Arizona, beat the Cardinals 33-7 in a game that didn’t appear to be that close.  This is probably the toughest game to pick.  Some games the Pack seem like the team to beat and others weren’t nearly as convincing.  But the Cardinals were similar this season.  Some games looking the defending NFC Champs while at other times looking like the…well…Arizona Cardinals.  I see more Cardinals than NFC Champs in this team.  Packers 34 Cardinals 24

So there you go…

Jets and Pats

Boys and Pack

So what games are most important for straightening out this playoff mess?

First of all lets figure out what teams have a legitimate shot at the playoffs.  Indy, Minnesota, and New Orleans are in so they are not part of this discussion.

AFC:

San Diego and Cincinnati are all but in.  Since they play each other this week they might not both clinch a spot but they will soon enough.

Denver and New England are in total control of their playoff fate.  If they win out they are in for sure.  Both are 8-5 and the Pats can still win the East division.

After that there are really only 4 teams with a legitimate shot…Baltimore, NY Jets, Miami, and Jacksonville (although they are in trouble after losing to Colts).

NFC:

Green Bay are in a great position and could be in soon.

Arizona only has to get one more game on the 49ers and they are in.  A loss by San Fran and a win by Arizona would put the Cards in as division champs.

Philly and Dallas could be fighting til the last week for the division championship but if that happens then both are likely in the playoffs.

After that it comes down to a few teams, NY Giants and for arguments sake Atlanta and San Fran are still alive but really if the top 6 don’t make it then the Giants are probably the team that blows up the formula.

So what games carry the most weight this weekend?

Cincinnati at San Diego

Interesting matchup as both teams can theoritically clinch their divisions today.  And San Diego can clinch the #2 seed if both Denver and New England lose.  With the sad death of Chris Henry the Bengals should be playing as well as they have all season.  Even with a loss the Bengals still only have to win 1 game to clinch the division while the Chargers need a Denver loss either way.

New England at Buffalo

This game obviously isn’t important for Buffalo but New England needs to win to remain ahead of Miami and the Jets.  Doesn’t seem that difficult right?  Except the Pats are only 1-5 on the road this season and have lost 2 of their last 3.  The Bills bring a top 5 pass defense having allowed only 10 touchdowns through the air all season.  If New England is going to win this game Laurence Maroney will need to have a big game.

Miami at Tennessee

This might be the biggest game as far as playoff lives are concerned.  The Dolphins are in decent position while the Titans are just hanging on at 6-7 but with a Titans win the Dolphins would be all but eliminated as they would fall behind the Titans at 7-7 with only 2 games to play.

Atlanta at NY Jets

The weather will play a huge factor in this game as the winds and cold should be alive and well in Jersey.  Both teams need to win this game to stay alive.  A loss and the Falcons are definitely done while a loss for the Jets wouldn’t be as bad but could still kill their playoff chances.

San Fransisco at Philadelphia

The weather has already affected this game as it will now kick off at 4:15 instead of 1.  But more importantly can the 49ers stay alive in the wild card and divisional races?  Philly also needs to keep winning to stay ahead of the Cowboys who won last night in New Orleans if they want to win the division.  But with a win the Eagles are at least in the playoffs.

Green Bay at Pittsburgh

If the Steelers lose they are done.  If they win they still need lots of help but can help their own cause the last 2 weeks with games against Baltimore and Miami to go.  Green Bay can clinch a wild card spot with a win and a Giants loss.

Some of the other games mean a little but not as much as the games listed above.  Expect plenty of surprises over the last 3 weeks as their always are.

Thank you San Fransisco 49ers.  First of all I was 4-0 with my picks going into that game but you screwed up my undefeated week.  Secondly you didn’t allow the NFC playoff picture to become any clearer.

If Arizona would have won they would have clinched the division and made everything easier…at least a little bit.  The Cardinals still don’t have to do too much and will probably lock up the division soon.  They get the Lions this week and the Rams next…not exactly what I would call a daunting schedule.

But now the 49ers are technically alive again in the NFC.  Not likely but still alive.  At 6-7 they would need to win out (@Philly, Det, @St. Louis) and get help.  I would be shocked (SHOCKED) if they were to win this Sunday in Philly at 1:00 pm eastern time….10:00 am pacific time.  That’s an early start for the Niners.

Thank you to the Eagles who did actually clear up (or start to at least) the NFC East.  They are now in full control of their fate although they were in a very similar position last year before almost blowing it.

Green Bay is still likely to win a wild card spot.  They actually clinch a playoff spot this week if they win AND either Dallas or the Giants lose.  They play Pittsburgh which a few weeks ago looked like a good game…now I would say the Pack should win relatively easily.  If they don’t win they finish the season with Seattle at home and then at Arizona.  Not easy but surely not that hard.  Green Bay is in.

The New York Giants can’t clinch a spot this week but when Dallas loses to New Orleans on Saturday night (which they will) and the Giants beat the Redskins in Washington on Sunday they will be ahead of Dallas and for the time being will be in the playoffs.  In which case they will control their own fate with games against Carolina at home and then on the road against the Vikings who will probably be playing backups in a meaningless game.

Dallas is actually in the right position right now but with games remaining against New Orleans and Philly (with Washington in between) they are going to need to play exceptional football ASAP….not going to happen.

After Dallas there is a logjam of teams hoping both the Giants and the Packers fall apart.  Not going to happen.  If you are not one of the teams mentioned above you are staying home this January.

Now to the AFC…

The East is a mess.  I still think the Jets have a great chance as they should get to 10-6.  They welcome the depleted Atlanta Falcons this Sunday to the Meadowlands.  Then they play @ Indy and at home against Cincinnati.  Sure those teams are good but both should have clinched playoff berths (Indy already has home field advantage) and will be resting players earlier than usual.

The Patriots could throw a wrench into my theory though.  They are 8-5 and control their own fate.  However the Pats finish with 2 road games (and a home date with Jacksonville) and the Pats are 1-5 on the road and that one win was over Tampa Bay in London.  So while they should win this weekend @ Buffalo I wouldn’t bet on it.

The Dolphins are also in the mix but they have a tough schedule left.  This week they are @ Tennessee, then home for Houston, and then they welcome the Steelers to Florida.  If I am right and the Jets win out the Dolphins (who WILL lose one of the three) will end up 1 game back.  But if they can win out they own the tiebreaker with the Jets.

The North is easy.  Cincy wins the division with a win OR a Baltimore loss.  They will win the division but probably not til next week when they play Kansas City.

The West is also easy.  The Chargers will win it.  They are 2 games up on Denver and are great in December.  They will clinch the division if they win and Denver loses.  San Diego will win this week but Denver should beat Oakland.  The Chargers will win the division but it might take another week to be official.

As for the Wild Card…just roll some dice.  There are 9 teams (if you include all the East teams minus Buffalo) that have a legitimate shot at it.  I am not going to get into it here.

To see who I think will get to the playoffs just view my updated Power 12 list.

What happened to the Eagles/Giants rivalry?  It used to be a physical defensive battle.  Last night though the teams combined for over 800 yards and over 80 points.

Don’t get me wrong it was a very entertaining game but not what I expected.  Every time the Eagles got a lead it seemed like the Giants responded.  Three times the Eagles had 14 point leads (and another 13 point lead) but they couldn’t hold them.

The Eagles though are in total control of their playoff fate now.  They are a game ahead of the Cowboys and 2 games up on the Giants in the division with a game against Dallas yet to come.  With 3 games remaining and the Cowboys getting the Saints next weekend the division could be wrapped up soon.

Next week the Birds welcome the 49ers to Philadelphia for a 1:00 start.  West coast teams always struggle with early starts on the East coast anyway but add to that a short week for the Niners and well a poor team to begin with and the Eagles should be 6+ point favorites next weekend.

The only question going forward for Philly should be…the running game.  It seems like this is the question every single season but it rarely gets truly better.  This year it started to look okay with Lesean McCoy but has recently fallen back to normal.  Leonard Weaver had almost as many carries and had more yards than McCoy last night.  And while Weaver looked good is he really going to be the #1 running back?

I am beginning to think that the problem isn’t in the running backs as much as in the running game.  Andy Reid doesn’t want to run the ball and the reason is because he doesn’t know how to install a running game.  McCoy, Brian Westbrook, Duce Staley, and many others have had the ability but once McNabb gained a solid grasp of the passing game and remaining in the pocket the run game began to fade and is now non-existent.

While a running game is not critical to winning a Super Bowl it is definitely something you would want to have some consistency by then.  Hopefully I am wrong but I feel as though the Eagles running game (or lack thereof) will be too much of a hindrance to make the Super Bowl.

But with as good as the passing game is…maybe they have enough.

I (lucky me) got to watch the Lions-Ravens, Bengals-Vikings, and Chargers-Cowboys games today.  Because I live about 60 minutes north of Baltimore I actually had to watch the ENTIRE Ravens-Lions game.  Brutal.  And lets be honest the Vikings-Bengals game wasn’t much better.

While watching those games I noticed a few things….the Bengals aren’t going to beat anyone in the playoffs, the Lions suck, and the Chargers are quite possibly turning into the team to beat in the AFC.

Sure the Colts are still undefeated and will get homefield advantage throughout the playoffs but the Chargers have the talent and are playing the most complete football right now.  I am not saying that todays win was overly impressive, it wasn’t, but they have now won 8 in row and are in good position to get the #2 seed in the AFC.  Next week they welcome the Bengals to San Diego and after watching the Bungals today I would say they won’t challenge the Chargers next week too much.

In the NFC the Saints continued to roll albeit uncomfortably.  They haven’t looked great the past 2 weeks and really with the exception of the New England game they haven’t looked good in a couple months.  They do what they need to do to get the win and that is all that matters right now.  Today it was the depleted Falcons giving them fits taking the game down to the wire before the Saints won by 3.

If I was a Saints fan I would be a little worried at this point.  Sure they might get homefield advantage (need to win 2 more) but that might not be enough.  They just haven’t looked that good recently.  The defense is giving up yardage in chunks and they are starting to look like the Saints of the past couple years…outscore the opponents at all costs.

I think most of the appeal of the Saints defense this season has been that they score regularly but that isn’t always going to happen.  At some point they just need to man up and shut down an opposing offense.  So far this season they have only been able to do that in a couple games.  In their 13 games this season at this point they have held their opponent to under 20 points only 4 times.  For a defense that everyone claims is so good they can’t seem to get off the field.

This has got to be the best time of year for NFL fans though.  The next 2 months are incredible followed by 6 months of horrible boredom.  The playoff races are coming down to the wire…2 divisions are locked up (AFC and NFC South), 3 more are all but done (NFC and AFC North and NFC West), while 2 East divisions could come down to the final weekend.

And the wild card races??  They are going to be fun.  There are 8 teams in the AFC that are still alive while the NFC is a little less interesting as only 4 or 5 teams have a legitimate shot.  Tonight’s game between the Eagles and the Giants will either cloud the picture further or all but settle the NFC East.