I took a week to be impressed with myself after picking both the Saints and the Colts back in August.  Now I am back to really examine the two teams before the match up Sunday at 6ish in Miami.

Each day I will examine a portion of each team’s offense and defense which will get us through Thursday.  Friday will be my picks and maybe I will throw something else up for Saturday and Sunday.  Enjoy the week…I know I am excited!

Indianapolis Colts Offense

The Colts offense obviously starts and stops with the best quarterback in NFL history Peyton Manning.  No one can argue that fact (the offense part not the best in history part) but he is not the only piece that matters.  While the running game has been abysmal for much of the season they do just enough to keep defenses honest.  Without running often Peyton’s play action would be meaningless.  But they run enough and defenses bite enough to make it effective.

The offensive line showed a lot against the Jets.  They were getting blitzed and beaten every play for the first 7-10 minutes of the game.  Then adjustments were made by the line and the play calling which pretty much made the Jets blitz meaningless for the rest of the game.

I always say that I would rather start off a game struggling a bit while the other team is playing perfect.  As long as you keep the score close the proper adjustments WILL be made by the struggling team while the perfect team continues down the same path.

That is what the Colts continuously due.  And much of that credit goes to Manning and his line.  They know what the other needs to do and wants to do and they do it brilliantly.  Peyton makes even the weakest part of an offense look exceptional at times.  I swear that the running game has been more effective (yardage wise) than it really has and that is because Peyton is so efficient.

The wide receivers are the story of the season and will probably be the story of the Super Bowl.  The reason I was so confident against the Jets was that while I knew Revis would shut down Reggie Wayne I knew Austin Collie and/or Pierre Garcon would have big days.  Honestly I didn’t think both would go off but they both did.  And now Peyton and and company are getting set to play in Miami.

Will the Saints defense be up to the challenge in shutting down all the Colts weapons?  You shut down Wayne and Dallas Clark but Collie and Garcon blow up.  Shut down Collie and Wayne while Garcon and Clark have big days.  And if you could possibly shut down 3 of the receivers, lets say Wayne, Collie and Clark, then you have to contend with Joseph Addai and Donald Brown coming out of the backfield.

If you sit back too much to shut down the passing game I guarantee Addai will run the ball often.  The Vikings torched the Saints run defense and while Addai and the Colts offensive line isn’t as good as Peterson and the Vikings line you can bet your top dollar that they will be more than good enough to win this game.

I don’t see the Saints defense shutting down Peyton and company too much.  The question is…can the Saints offense score more??

Let’s examine this tomorrow.

Ok, I haven’t posted much this week as I have been patting myself on the back all week for having 3 of the 4 Championship game teams right before the season.

But now the games are almost here and we all want to know who is going to win.  I mean anyone playing the ESPN Playoff Challenge thing is banking on teams getting in because they can’t update their roster after this weekends games.  If you miss this weekend you are going to lose the following week.

So I am here to tell you who is going to win.  Here I will discuss the Jets/Colts game and later (maybe tomorrow morning) the Vikings/Saints game will be debated.

New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts (-7.5)

The Jets shocked 90% off the world last weekend by beating the Chargers IN San Diego.  But honestly I wasn’t surprised.  No I wasn’t overly confident in my pick and surely wouldn’t have bet real money on it but I did suspect that the Jets could win.  They can thank Nate Kaeding for the victory as the kicker missed 3 field goals, 2 of which were extremely make able.

Can they do it again?  I have heard some people talk about it and make it sound like they are the perfect team to beat the Colts and I tend to  disagree with that.  They were the perfect team to beat the Chargers, but the Colts aren’t the Chargers.  The Chargers only had one good receiver, Malcolm Floyd is average at best, and the Jets have the single best cornerback in football today.  But the rest of the secondary is not as strong.

Peyton Manning throws the ball to a number of different receivers, all of which can catch the ball and make plays.  Sure their running game is pathetic but they run the ball enough to make the play action pass very effective.  Add to that Kerry Rhodes is a little banged up in the Jets secondary and the Jets are fighting an extremely uphill battle this weekend.

The Colts defense heard all last week how the Ravens were going to run the ball 50 times and dominate the clock and the game on their way to the Super Bowl.  But the small, weak, soft Colts defense managed to hold the Ravens to 3 points and only 87 yards rushing.  And it wasn’t like Baltimore was that far behind most of the game, Indy was only up 2 touchdowns until 7 minutes left in the 4th quarter.  The key…the Colts forced 4 turnovers, 2 fumbles and 2 interceptions.

Don’t think they can’t do that again.  The Jets are very similar to the Ravens, dominant running game and a very good defense.  The one big difference between the two is the Jets pass defense is better than the Ravens.

But New York won’t win this game.  And the Colts will cover.

Colts 24 Jets 13

Well I am awfully happy with myself after this weekend.  If you want to know why just scroll down and see my picks from this past weekend…

4-0

That’s right I picked all 4 games….including the Jets over Chargers.

Sure there was a lot of luck involved in my picks but still I went 4-0.  I wasn’t truly sold on the Jets pick but the other 3 I was awfully confident about and I knew there would be one upset.  And everyone was so sure the Chargers were playing the best football but for some reason everyone forgot that the Chargers had the bye week just like the Saints, Vikings, and Colts who everyone kept asking if they were rusty.  But the Chargers were going to be fine?  Against the Jets defense?

Yeah, I am not surprised the Jets won.

Even better in my eyes is that BEFORE THE SEASON I picked the Saints and Colts for the Super Bowl.  Now obviously that hasn’t happened yet but just having the 2 teams still alive is an achievement in my book.

And EVEN more impressive…I actually had the Vikings vs Saints in the NFC Championship however I thought the Vikes would have had home field advantage.

On the AFC side I had Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship game so that isn’t so good.

This weekends games are going to be tough to pick.  Jets @ Colts and Vikings @ Saints.  If I had to pick right now I would surely go Colts/Saints but 2 things scare me…the Jets defense and Brett Favre.

I REALLY don’t want to hear 2 weeks about Favre so the Saints HAVE to win.

Yesterday I covered the Saturday games and today we look at the Sunday games.  So far I have straight chalk with the Saints and Colts pulling out victories.Vi

Cowboys @ Vikings (-2.5)

Interesting line in this game.  Typically home teams get 3 points so on a neutral field Vegas thinks the Cowboys would be better.  But this isn’t on a neutral field, it is in one of the toughest domes to play in in the NFL.

For many people this is a tossup game but I am pretty confident in my pick.  I have not been a Brett Favre fan all season.  Personally I think you take Adrian Peterson off this team and Favre throws almost 20 interceptions and the Vikings only go 9-7.  Even with both players they were in position to lose 2-3 games this season.

The Cowboys have been playing great of late.  They dominated everyone’s favorite team, the Philadelphia Eagles, and beat the Saints when the Saints were still good.  Tony Romo is supposedly playing the best football of his career and the running game is 3 deep and dominant.  And the Cowboys defense….wow…how good are they.  I mean you have the great pass rushers, the awesome linebackers, and the solid secondary.  Is there a weakness on this team?

Yes there is a weakness.  You know what that is…they just aren’t as good as everyone thinks.

Yes they beat the Saints when the Saints were still undefeated.  And yes they beat the Eagles twice.  The Saints had already clinched the division and had all but locked up home field throughout, they just didn’t have as much to play for.  When you have all but clinched your goals for the season you are surely going to slow down and slip a bit.  The Eagles were a mirage…simple as that.  They were quite possibly the most one dimensional team in the league with a beat up defense and a poor gameplan in both games.

The Cowboys can stop a running team OR a passing team but can they beat a team that does both very well?  Can they stop Peterson AND Favre.  I am not so sure.

Yes I know Peterson hasn’t done much in the second half of the season…so?  They haven’t had to truly play since about Thanksgiving.  When they needed to get up for a game they did…anyone remember the Packers games?  Just the threat of Peterson has to be acknowledged by the Cowboys defense which takes away from their pass coverage.  And that allows Favre to find Percy Harvin and Sidney Rice downfield, Chester Taylor out of the backfield, and Visanthe Shiancoe over the middle.

The Cowboys will have to outscore the Vikings and honestly I think the Cowboys offensive line will be overmatched.  The Vikings defensive line is the best in football.  The linebackers and secondary have had some injuries and are weakened a little bit but the defensive line is dominant.

KEY PLAYER:

Felix Jones – Cowboys RB

Marion Barber is banged up and while he will probably play he isn’t any more than a clock drainer.  And against the Vikings he won’t have more than 5o yards on 20 carries anyhow.  But Felix Jones is a game breaker.  Whether getting the ball on screens, kick returns, or taking handoffs he is a threat to go the distance every single time.  If he can get a few big plays the Cowboys might actually have a shot.  I think he might get his plays too.

MY PICK:

Like I said I am pretty confident in my pick.  The Cowboys are playing well right now while the Vikings are a little questionable.  But I don’t think the Cowboys can stop both the Vikings passing game and running game.

Vikings 24 Cowboys 21

Jets @ Chargers (-9)

Is anyone talking about the Jets here?  Nope.  Everyone thinks the Chargers are the best team in the NFL right now.  The Jets have a great defense and a good running game but the passing game leaves MUCH to be desired.  The Chargers have tall receivers and some name defensive players.  Okay so the Chargers have more than that but I am surprised at how good everyone thinks they are.

The Jets won last week in Cincinnati against a team that just can’t throw the ball of late.  The Chargers don’t have that problem.  But the Bengals can run the ball on anyone while the Chargers can’t.  Sure LaDainian Tomlinson is good but he isn’t what he was and Darren Sproles doesn’t get enough touches.

I honestly think the Jets could win this game.  They have the defense to slow down the Chargers but their offense needs to step up their game and make some plays.  The running game will be there but Mark Sanchez has to make a few plays to win this game.  He has made a few plays during the season but he has also made some huge mistakes.

KEY PLAYER:

Mark Sanchez – Jets QB

Like I mentioned above the Jets running game will get their yards.  The Chargers weren’t that good at stopping the run all season while the Jets run the ball all the time.  In order for the Jets to stay in the game Sanchez HAS to make 3-5 plays in the passing game.  It doesn’t have to be long touchdowns or long pass plays but there will be multiple 3rd and longs that he will have to get in order to keep drives alive.

MY PICK:

When looking for true upsets look towards the games that no one is talking about.  No one is giving the Jets a chance except the Jets.  But why not?  The Chargers haven’t stopped the run all season and they aren’t exactly dominating against the pass either.  The Jets pass defense has dominated top receivers ALL SEASON but now that the Chargers are the team everyone is talking about how tall and big the receivers are.  Really?  What did Randy Moss do against Darrelle Revis?  The pass defense will be okay and Rivers will turn the ball over 2 times to help the Jets cause.

Jets 23 Chargers 20

Okay I have lots to say on the 4 games this weekend so you are going to get 2 posts this weekend.  Each will cover each day’s games and will include my picks.  Today lets start with the Saturday games which are Arizona at New Orleans and Baltimore at Indianapolis.

Cardinals @ Saints (-7)

The debate here is which team is ready to play.  The Cardinals?  Who just came off a ‘who can score more’ win against Green Bay in which neither defense did much until the Cardinals scored a defensive touchdown in overtime to win the game.  How about the Saints?  They had last week off after clinching the #1 seed in the NFC a few weeks ago.  For much of the season they were dominating and beating everyone but finished the season losing 3 straight games.  Which makes everyone question them.

I am torn on this game a bit.  You know a top seed is going to lose.  You aren’t going to see 1 vs 2 matchups in both the AFC and the NFC although that would be awesome.  I know the Saints are not a veteran playoff team having missed the playoffs the last 2 seasons but before that they did make it to the NFC Championship game with Drew Brees at quarterback.  And don’t forget that they do have Darren Sharper on defense who has played in a few big playoff games himself.

Also keep in mind that just because a team ‘backs in’ to the playoffs doesn’t mean they aren’t ready to go….remember the Cardinals last season?  Personally I think there are some definite similarities between the teams, great offenses, average defenses, locked up their divisions early, and are both doubted going into the playoffs.

But the Cardinals are playing well right now and have some momentum after last weeks game.  The Packers were considered a Super Bowl contender going into the game and the Cardinals dominated them for 3+ quarters.  Kurt Warner is playing in what could be his last playoffs and the Cardinals defense, last week not withstanding, was actually pretty good this season.

Here is my biggest concern for the Saints….they barely won multiple games this season.  Remember the Dolphins game?  Or the Redskins game?  They were in trouble in both before pulling it out at the end.  They have been living on the brink all season and could get pushed over this weekend.

KEY PLAYER:

Beanie Wells – Arizona RB

Beanie is the key to this game.  If the Cardinals can run on the Saints and they can change things up a bit they will win this game.  If the Cardinals line up and just throw the football all day the Saints will win because the defense will do more than the Packers defense and the Saints offense is as good as any in football.  If Wells gets his carries (and Hightower too) and can make something out of them the Cards will win.

MY PICK:

I don’t think they will run it enough.  The Cardinals will line up and try to beat the Saints through the air and it will backfire on them.  Darren Sharper will get a pick and Brees will play better than Warner as the Saints win at home.

Saints 34 Cardinals 24

Ravens @ Colts (-7)

This is the game everyone is picking as an upset.  Everyone thinks one of two things, either the Colts are going to be rusty and will lose or that the Colts just aren’t as good as their record and the Ravens play the kind of game that can beat them.

I disagree with BOTH of those ideas.  First of all the rest argument.  Yes I think the Colts might come out a little rusty but I don’t think it will be too noticeable.  The first year or two that the Colts did this sure it hurt them but Peyton and the rest of the offense knows what to do now.  You really think Peyton wasn’t all over his guys the past few weeks to make sure everything is ready to go?  Come on now.

The second argument, that the Ravens will run the ball all day long and Flacco will do enough and the defense can shut down the Colts….bull!  Does anyone remember a certain Monday night game early in the season in Miami?  Does anyone remember that the Dolphins ran the ball all game long and actually had the ball for 3 quarters of the game and still LOST?  Yeah, controlling the ball only works if your pass defense is good enough to stop the opposing offense.

And while the Ravens shut down the (injured) Patriots last week the Colts are NOT the Patriots this season.  Wes Welker was out, Randy Moss was injured, and Tom Brady is reportedly injured a bit.  Other than Anthony Gonzalez, who hasn’t played almost the entire season, they are healthy.  The Ravens secondary has been getting torn up all season and just because they managed to win one game with their defense last week now they are Super Bowl contenders??  Please.

I am sitting here listening to Colin Cowherd talk right now about how without Tony Dungy the Colts defense isn’t the same.  Really?  The Colts defense couldn’t stop the run for years under Dungy.  He is arguing that the Colts defense can’t stop anyone that Peyton has had to outscore everyone this season.  Really?  The Colts won 4 games this season scoring 4 or fewer points.  Meaning the defense had to stop someone.  Oh and that includes a victory over the Ravens.  The Colts defense held the opposition to UNDER 20 points in 1o games including games against the offenses of Arizona, Houston, Tennessee, and Baltimore.

So spare me that the Colts defense isn’t good.  No they aren’t the best in the league.  Sure they might be the worst of the 8 remaining teams but they have done enough this season.  Yes everyone knows the Colts are nothing without Peyton Manning which is why he has won 4 MVP trophies.  Because without Peyton the Colts only win 5-8 games a season at best.  But Peyton is there and he is ready to play right now.

KEY PLAYER:

Joe Flacco – Ravens QB

Sure the Ravens will run the ball during the game.  And they will have success doing it.  But Flacco will HAVE to make some big throws to win this game.  Can he do it?  He completed 4 passes last weekend.  He doesn’t have a lot of playmakers at wide receiver.  Really the best receiver is running back Ray Rice.  Just look to Philadelphia in the past 8 years to see what happens when your best receiver is a running back.  While the Colts pass defense isn’t great they are solid and will cause problems for Flacco.

MY PICK:

Flacco won’t make the plays.  Peyton will.  Colts will win.  The Colts defense will shut down the Ravens passing game and they will do more than the Patriots against the running game.  Which will be enough to win.

Colts 27 Ravens 16

Well last weekend was interesting.  I went 2-2 on my picks getting Saturday’s games correct and Sunday’s games wrong.  And I am pretty sure most people got the New England vs Baltimore game wrong.  Who would have thought that Baltimore would dominate like that?

Unfortunately it was one of the more boring playoff weekends that I can remember.  The Jets/Bengals game was somewhat close but not very interesting as the Jets controlled the game from the start.  The Cowboys/Eagles game was only interesting if you are a Cowboys fan as the Eagles didn’t really show up.  I had the game on but was busy doing other things as I couldn’t watch that crap.  The Ravens/Pats game was a blowout from the opening gun but not in the way any one imagined.  Baltimore opened up a 24-0 lead in the first quarter and ran the ball the rest of the game.

But we were all saved by the Cardinals/Packers game.  Although for the first half it was no more interesting than the Ravens/Pats game as the Cards controlled the play.  But over the final quarter and a half the Packers came alive and it turned into an amazing game.

I thought the Packers were going to win from the very start and considering some of the calls during the game how the Cardinals didn’t get a roughing the passer penalty on the last play I will never know.  But they didn’t and the Cardinals won.  Now they head to New Orleans to challenge another team that heavily favors the pass.

So lets look at the matchups:

Arizona @ New Orleans

Everyone is talking about the Saints and how they haven’t really played well down the stretch.  But what did they have to play for?  Didn’t we all question the Cardinals last year in the same way?  They struggled mightily before getting into the postseason and going all the way to the Super Bowl.  The Saints are a similar team to last season’s Cardinals and don’t think for a minute that Drew Brees and Darren Sharper won’t have that team ready to play.

The Cardinals played the late game on Sunday which didn’t finish until around 8pm Eastern time.  Now they have to play the early game on Saturday in New Orleans….not easy.  Everyone thinks this game will be a shootout but I am not so sure.  I think Warner throws a couple picks and the Saints take control.

Ravens @ Colts

Another rematch from a few weeks ago.  The Colts won that game 17-15 as the Ravens couldn’t put the ball in the endzone.  The Colts haven’t had a meaningful game since Thanksgiving and that has cost them in the past.  When the starters sat out most of weeks 16 and 17 it started to worry me a bit.  Although if the defense got healthy with that week off and the rest the earlier weeks should help them against the Ravens.

The Ravens are coming in with lots of momentum after dominating the Patriots but the Colts aren’t the Pats.  They have all their weapons healthy unlike the Patriots last week.  And you aren’t going to see an 83 yard touchdown run right away against the Colts defense.   But momentum is a powerful thing and the Ravens are confident they can win.

Cowboys @ Vikings

All this talk about how good the Cowboys are playing.  Really?  Let’s look at it.  The won at a New Orleans team that wasn’t playing their best anymore as they had locked up a top 2 seed in the playoffs.  Then they won at Washington…wow that is difficult.  Then they beat the Eagles twice at home.  Sure those were dominating performances.  But the Cowboys were built to beat the Eagles this season.  The Eagles have been struggling with injuries since training camp and their defense was weakened as was the offensive line.

Add to that the fact that Philly only throws the ball and they played right into the Cowboys hands.  But the Vikings have the threat of Adrian Peterson.  And then they have Brett Favre.  While the Eagles were very one dimensional the Vikings are very two dimensional.  Which way does the Cowboys defense focus?  Do they shut down Peterson and risk Favre beating them?  Or do they shut down the passing game and hope Peterson doesn’t get rolling?

Jets @ Chargers

This game is being discussed the least as I think most people figure the Chargers are too good to lose.  I mean they are everyone’s pick to make the Super Bowl.  I was reading the Sporting News yesterday and I think it was 5 of the 6 analysts had picked the Chargers to make the Super Bowl.  But if I am the Chargers I would rather have seen the Patriots in this game.

The Jets stop the run, they stop the pass, and they run the ball.  All the ingredients to win in the postseason no matter what stadium they are playing in.  If the Chargers get frustrated early you will see it on Philip Rivers face and in his play.  He WILL turn the ball over if the Jets can get out to a good start against him.  Personally I think while this isn’t the most interesting game of the weekend right now it might be the best game of the weekend to watch.

I will have my picks later this week (since its already Thursday I don’t think you will have to wait long) so check back then.

So the playoffs are here yet again.  Finally the teams that actually wanted to play in the postseason stepped up and won when they needed to.

Going into week 17 the Jets and Ravens had to win to be in and the Eagles only had to win to clinch the NFC East and a first round bye.  Well the Jets and Ravens won and will face Cincinnati and New England respectively.  But the Eagles…the stinking Eagles…couldn’t score a point and drop from the #2 position all the way to #6 and have to play the Cowboys in Dallas again next weekend.

Which brings me to the next point.  Next weekend we get to see 3 games that we saw this past weekend.  Eagles at the Cowboys, Packers at the Cardinals, and the Bengals hosting the Jets.  And the 4th game, Ravens at Patriots, was played earlier this season as well.  So not a single original matchup amongst the 4.

That isn’t always a bad thing but typically that is because division rivals are facing off in the playoffs.  Other than the Cowboys/Eagles none of the other games feature division rivals.  Sure Ravens/Patriots might be exciting but who wants to see Bengals/Jets or Packers/Cardinals?  I mean honestly.

Either way it is the NFL playoffs and we will all be watching.

To start the season I picked Saints/Colts so I will stick with those picks but neither of those teams are playing this weekend.

So who wins….

NY Jets at Cincinnati Bengals

The Jets dominated this past Sunday night and I don’t see that changing next weekend.  No I don’t think Mark Sanchez can lead this team deep into January nor can the defense carry them too far.  BUT the Bungals have been struggling of late and they will continue to do so.  Jets 23 Bengals 17

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

Dallas won both games this season including 24-0 just yesterday.  The game was closer than the score indicated as the Eagles blew multiple chances with blown plays, dropped passes, and stupid penalties while the Cowboys played an almost perfect game.  And winning 3 games over a team in one season is a tough thing to do.   I will surely be rooting for the Eagles this Saturday and have faith they can pull out the win but will pick the Cowboys here.  Cowboys 27 Eagles 17

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots

The Patriots are 8-0 at home this season but only 2-6 (one win in England) on the road.  Fortunately for them they are playing this game at home.  The Ravens barely got into the playoffs but they play a style of football that could see them hang around for a bit, solid defense with a ball control offense.  But this defense isn’t as good as last seasons and a good passing team can exploit them.  The Pats will.  Patriots 31 Ravens 20

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals

Last years surprise team hosting a team that embarrassed them this past weekend.  The Packers, in Arizona, beat the Cardinals 33-7 in a game that didn’t appear to be that close.  This is probably the toughest game to pick.  Some games the Pack seem like the team to beat and others weren’t nearly as convincing.  But the Cardinals were similar this season.  Some games looking the defending NFC Champs while at other times looking like the…well…Arizona Cardinals.  I see more Cardinals than NFC Champs in this team.  Packers 34 Cardinals 24

So there you go…

Jets and Pats

Boys and Pack

Even though kicker Nick Folk tried to lose the game for the Cowboys they did win which keeps the NFC playoff picture a little cloudy.

So what games are most important for straightening out this playoff mess?

First of all lets figure out what teams have a legitimate shot at the playoffs.  Indy, Minnesota, and New Orleans are in so they are not part of this discussion.

AFC:

San Diego and Cincinnati are all but in.  Since they play each other this week they might not both clinch a spot but they will soon enough.

Denver and New England are in total control of their playoff fate.  If they win out they are in for sure.  Both are 8-5 and the Pats can still win the East division.

After that there are really only 4 teams with a legitimate shot…Baltimore, NY Jets, Miami, and Jacksonville (although they are in trouble after losing to Colts).

NFC:

Green Bay are in a great position and could be in soon.

Arizona only has to get one more game on the 49ers and they are in.  A loss by San Fran and a win by Arizona would put the Cards in as division champs.

Philly and Dallas could be fighting til the last week for the division championship but if that happens then both are likely in the playoffs.

After that it comes down to a few teams, NY Giants and for arguments sake Atlanta and San Fran are still alive but really if the top 6 don’t make it then the Giants are probably the team that blows up the formula.

So what games carry the most weight this weekend?

Cincinnati at San Diego

Interesting matchup as both teams can theoritically clinch their divisions today.  And San Diego can clinch the #2 seed if both Denver and New England lose.  With the sad death of Chris Henry the Bengals should be playing as well as they have all season.  Even with a loss the Bengals still only have to win 1 game to clinch the division while the Chargers need a Denver loss either way.

New England at Buffalo

This game obviously isn’t important for Buffalo but New England needs to win to remain ahead of Miami and the Jets.  Doesn’t seem that difficult right?  Except the Pats are only 1-5 on the road this season and have lost 2 of their last 3.  The Bills bring a top 5 pass defense having allowed only 10 touchdowns through the air all season.  If New England is going to win this game Laurence Maroney will need to have a big game.

Miami at Tennessee

This might be the biggest game as far as playoff lives are concerned.  The Dolphins are in decent position while the Titans are just hanging on at 6-7 but with a Titans win the Dolphins would be all but eliminated as they would fall behind the Titans at 7-7 with only 2 games to play.

Atlanta at NY Jets

The weather will play a huge factor in this game as the winds and cold should be alive and well in Jersey.  Both teams need to win this game to stay alive.  A loss and the Falcons are definitely done while a loss for the Jets wouldn’t be as bad but could still kill their playoff chances.

San Fransisco at Philadelphia

The weather has already affected this game as it will now kick off at 4:15 instead of 1.  But more importantly can the 49ers stay alive in the wild card and divisional races?  Philly also needs to keep winning to stay ahead of the Cowboys who won last night in New Orleans if they want to win the division.  But with a win the Eagles are at least in the playoffs.

Green Bay at Pittsburgh

If the Steelers lose they are done.  If they win they still need lots of help but can help their own cause the last 2 weeks with games against Baltimore and Miami to go.  Green Bay can clinch a wild card spot with a win and a Giants loss.

Some of the other games mean a little but not as much as the games listed above.  Expect plenty of surprises over the last 3 weeks as their always are.

Jacksonville had to win last night in order to have a shot at the playoffs…at least in my expert opinion.  They were 7-6 heading into the game with a realistic shot at making it to 9-7 and possible 10-6.  But they had to win against Indianapolis.

I actually thought they would.  I picked them to win and thought they would pull it out but the offense and defense couldn’t muster enough will and desire to beat the still undefeated Colts.

The Jaguars have now lost 3 of 4 and will lose again next week.  They visit New England.  I mentioned elsewhere that the Pats aren’t a great team this year but at home they are almost unbeatable and considering the Jags are poor on the road anywhere they will surely struggle in the cold New England weather.

With the loss the Jags actually fall below all the 7-6 teams remaining in the AFC (Miami, Baltimore, New York) and could fall behind teams like Pittsburgh, Tennessee, and Houston depending on this weeks outcomes.

The only saving grace for the Jags and their fans is that they do have a game against Cleveland left.  But it is also on the road and in the cold….not good for an average team from Florida.

IF and honestly its a big if they can muster up a win in New England next Sunday they would have an outside shot at making the playoffs.  But they would need help and that is never a good spot to be in this late in the season…just ask the Cowboys!

Thank you San Fransisco 49ers.  First of all I was 4-0 with my picks going into that game but you screwed up my undefeated week.  Secondly you didn’t allow the NFC playoff picture to become any clearer.

If Arizona would have won they would have clinched the division and made everything easier…at least a little bit.  The Cardinals still don’t have to do too much and will probably lock up the division soon.  They get the Lions this week and the Rams next…not exactly what I would call a daunting schedule.

But now the 49ers are technically alive again in the NFC.  Not likely but still alive.  At 6-7 they would need to win out (@Philly, Det, @St. Louis) and get help.  I would be shocked (SHOCKED) if they were to win this Sunday in Philly at 1:00 pm eastern time….10:00 am pacific time.  That’s an early start for the Niners.

Thank you to the Eagles who did actually clear up (or start to at least) the NFC East.  They are now in full control of their fate although they were in a very similar position last year before almost blowing it.

Green Bay is still likely to win a wild card spot.  They actually clinch a playoff spot this week if they win AND either Dallas or the Giants lose.  They play Pittsburgh which a few weeks ago looked like a good game…now I would say the Pack should win relatively easily.  If they don’t win they finish the season with Seattle at home and then at Arizona.  Not easy but surely not that hard.  Green Bay is in.

The New York Giants can’t clinch a spot this week but when Dallas loses to New Orleans on Saturday night (which they will) and the Giants beat the Redskins in Washington on Sunday they will be ahead of Dallas and for the time being will be in the playoffs.  In which case they will control their own fate with games against Carolina at home and then on the road against the Vikings who will probably be playing backups in a meaningless game.

Dallas is actually in the right position right now but with games remaining against New Orleans and Philly (with Washington in between) they are going to need to play exceptional football ASAP….not going to happen.

After Dallas there is a logjam of teams hoping both the Giants and the Packers fall apart.  Not going to happen.  If you are not one of the teams mentioned above you are staying home this January.

Now to the AFC…

The East is a mess.  I still think the Jets have a great chance as they should get to 10-6.  They welcome the depleted Atlanta Falcons this Sunday to the Meadowlands.  Then they play @ Indy and at home against Cincinnati.  Sure those teams are good but both should have clinched playoff berths (Indy already has home field advantage) and will be resting players earlier than usual.

The Patriots could throw a wrench into my theory though.  They are 8-5 and control their own fate.  However the Pats finish with 2 road games (and a home date with Jacksonville) and the Pats are 1-5 on the road and that one win was over Tampa Bay in London.  So while they should win this weekend @ Buffalo I wouldn’t bet on it.

The Dolphins are also in the mix but they have a tough schedule left.  This week they are @ Tennessee, then home for Houston, and then they welcome the Steelers to Florida.  If I am right and the Jets win out the Dolphins (who WILL lose one of the three) will end up 1 game back.  But if they can win out they own the tiebreaker with the Jets.

The North is easy.  Cincy wins the division with a win OR a Baltimore loss.  They will win the division but probably not til next week when they play Kansas City.

The West is also easy.  The Chargers will win it.  They are 2 games up on Denver and are great in December.  They will clinch the division if they win and Denver loses.  San Diego will win this week but Denver should beat Oakland.  The Chargers will win the division but it might take another week to be official.

As for the Wild Card…just roll some dice.  There are 9 teams (if you include all the East teams minus Buffalo) that have a legitimate shot at it.  I am not going to get into it here.

To see who I think will get to the playoffs just view my updated Power 12 list.