I already took the Colts so scroll down my page if you want to see that post and why and now I need to pick the more difficult of the two games this weekend.
Of all the possible outcomes this weekend a Jets vs Vikings matchup would be horrible to tolerate for 2 weeks. First of all and this will be terrible is if we have to listen to all the sports announcers and analysts kiss Brett Favre’s ass for 2 weeks. And you know it will happen. Sure all of them hated him in August but once he started winning they started heading further and further up Favre’s ass.
Second do we really want to hear about how Brett played for the Jets last year and the players didn’t like him and are out to get revenge? Hell no. I don’t want to hear ONE SINGLE word about Brett Favre after the game recaps on Monday/Tuesday next week. After that I don’t want Favre’s name mentioned until he starts his annual retiring/unretiring act that he has perfected.
So I am rooting for the Colts (who I think will win) and the Saints (who I picked before the season to win).
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
Minnesota embarrassed Dallas last weekend. Dallas was considered by many to be the hottest team in football and playing better than anyone else after their huge wins (sarcasm intended) over Washington and then twice over Philly. Wow…how good were the Cowboys? So now the question has to be…how good are the Vikings?
Well I will tell you…not that good. Especially on the road. Did you know…Minnesota is only 4-4 on the road this season with their victories coming over Detroit, Green Bay, Cleveland, and St. Louis. Wow…not a really impressive grouping. When the played a good team on the road they lost, Arizona, Pittsburgh, Carolina, and Chicago. So already the Vikings are in trouble. Add to that how good the Saints are at home. Sure they lost their last 2, against Dallas and Tampa but won every other game. And anyone will tell you that the Superdome is one of the hardest places to play.
But the Vikings have Favre and Adrian Peterson. So they will obviously be okay. And their defensive line is awesome so the Saints can’t…blah blah blah. Peterson hasn’t had a 100 yard running game since week 10 against Detroit. Even more amazing than that though is he has only averaged OVER 4 yards per carry in 1 game since the Detroit game, and that was week 17 against the nothing to play for Giants.
So Peterson is an average weapon right now.
On to Brett Favre.
The Saints pass defense is 4th in the league in completion percentage allowed (57.5%). They are 3rd in interceptions with 26. They have allowed the 5th fewest passing touchdowns all season (15).
All very impressive numbers. Now lets consider what teams compare to the Saints in those categories….not too many. The Bills and Jets are probably the closest two. But the Packers weren’t bad either although they allowed twice as many touchdown passes as the Saints. Basically what I am saying is that the Vikings have NOT played a defense like the Saints yet this season.
Now let’s look at this game from the other side.
Minnesota allows the 8th highest completion percentage in the league (63.7). They have only intercepted 11 passes this season, good for 4th fewest. They have allowed 26 passing touchdown passes which is 10th most in the league. But they are good at stopping the run, top 5 or 10 in most categories including per rush average, per game total, and touchdowns allowed.
BUT two of their defensive linemen are injured and while they will surely play this weekend they won’t be 100%, Kevin Williams and Ray Edwards. And many of those impressive running numbers came with middle linebacker E.J. Henderson in the lineup. He has been out for a few weeks now and won’t be back this weekend so that surely doesn’t hurt.
Drew Brees and the Saints passing game is one of the best in the NFL. And their running game is also one of the best in the NFL. So which do you stop if you are the Vikings? Last week it was easy, while the Cowboys running game is very good, the Dallas passing game makes that team go. I would say for the Saints both units carry their own weight. Brees will throw on you if you stack the line while they will also run the ball if you drop 8 into coverage.
Either way I can’t possibly pick against the Saints after picking them in August. But don’t expect as much of a shootout as some think. I would imagine it will be an average game with a few punts from both teams and plenty of field goals.
Saints 30 Vikings 20
Yesterday I covered the Saturday games and today we look at the Sunday games. So far I have straight chalk with the Saints and Colts pulling out victories.Vi
Cowboys @ Vikings (-2.5)
Interesting line in this game. Typically home teams get 3 points so on a neutral field Vegas thinks the Cowboys would be better. But this isn’t on a neutral field, it is in one of the toughest domes to play in in the NFL.
For many people this is a tossup game but I am pretty confident in my pick. I have not been a Brett Favre fan all season. Personally I think you take Adrian Peterson off this team and Favre throws almost 20 interceptions and the Vikings only go 9-7. Even with both players they were in position to lose 2-3 games this season.
The Cowboys have been playing great of late. They dominated everyone’s favorite team, the Philadelphia Eagles, and beat the Saints when the Saints were still good. Tony Romo is supposedly playing the best football of his career and the running game is 3 deep and dominant. And the Cowboys defense….wow…how good are they. I mean you have the great pass rushers, the awesome linebackers, and the solid secondary. Is there a weakness on this team?
Yes there is a weakness. You know what that is…they just aren’t as good as everyone thinks.
Yes they beat the Saints when the Saints were still undefeated. And yes they beat the Eagles twice. The Saints had already clinched the division and had all but locked up home field throughout, they just didn’t have as much to play for. When you have all but clinched your goals for the season you are surely going to slow down and slip a bit. The Eagles were a mirage…simple as that. They were quite possibly the most one dimensional team in the league with a beat up defense and a poor gameplan in both games.
The Cowboys can stop a running team OR a passing team but can they beat a team that does both very well? Can they stop Peterson AND Favre. I am not so sure.
Yes I know Peterson hasn’t done much in the second half of the season…so? They haven’t had to truly play since about Thanksgiving. When they needed to get up for a game they did…anyone remember the Packers games? Just the threat of Peterson has to be acknowledged by the Cowboys defense which takes away from their pass coverage. And that allows Favre to find Percy Harvin and Sidney Rice downfield, Chester Taylor out of the backfield, and Visanthe Shiancoe over the middle.
The Cowboys will have to outscore the Vikings and honestly I think the Cowboys offensive line will be overmatched. The Vikings defensive line is the best in football. The linebackers and secondary have had some injuries and are weakened a little bit but the defensive line is dominant.
KEY PLAYER:
Felix Jones – Cowboys RB
Marion Barber is banged up and while he will probably play he isn’t any more than a clock drainer. And against the Vikings he won’t have more than 5o yards on 20 carries anyhow. But Felix Jones is a game breaker. Whether getting the ball on screens, kick returns, or taking handoffs he is a threat to go the distance every single time. If he can get a few big plays the Cowboys might actually have a shot. I think he might get his plays too.
MY PICK:
Like I said I am pretty confident in my pick. The Cowboys are playing well right now while the Vikings are a little questionable. But I don’t think the Cowboys can stop both the Vikings passing game and running game.
Vikings 24 Cowboys 21
Jets @ Chargers (-9)
Is anyone talking about the Jets here? Nope. Everyone thinks the Chargers are the best team in the NFL right now. The Jets have a great defense and a good running game but the passing game leaves MUCH to be desired. The Chargers have tall receivers and some name defensive players. Okay so the Chargers have more than that but I am surprised at how good everyone thinks they are.
The Jets won last week in Cincinnati against a team that just can’t throw the ball of late. The Chargers don’t have that problem. But the Bengals can run the ball on anyone while the Chargers can’t. Sure LaDainian Tomlinson is good but he isn’t what he was and Darren Sproles doesn’t get enough touches.
I honestly think the Jets could win this game. They have the defense to slow down the Chargers but their offense needs to step up their game and make some plays. The running game will be there but Mark Sanchez has to make a few plays to win this game. He has made a few plays during the season but he has also made some huge mistakes.
KEY PLAYER:
Mark Sanchez – Jets QB
Like I mentioned above the Jets running game will get their yards. The Chargers weren’t that good at stopping the run all season while the Jets run the ball all the time. In order for the Jets to stay in the game Sanchez HAS to make 3-5 plays in the passing game. It doesn’t have to be long touchdowns or long pass plays but there will be multiple 3rd and longs that he will have to get in order to keep drives alive.
MY PICK:
When looking for true upsets look towards the games that no one is talking about. No one is giving the Jets a chance except the Jets. But why not? The Chargers haven’t stopped the run all season and they aren’t exactly dominating against the pass either. The Jets pass defense has dominated top receivers ALL SEASON but now that the Chargers are the team everyone is talking about how tall and big the receivers are. Really? What did Randy Moss do against Darrelle Revis? The pass defense will be okay and Rivers will turn the ball over 2 times to help the Jets cause.
