I already took the Colts so scroll down my page if you want to see that post and why and now I need to pick the more difficult of the two games this weekend.

Of all the possible outcomes this weekend a Jets vs Vikings matchup would be horrible to tolerate for 2 weeks.  First of all and this will be terrible is if we have to listen to all the sports announcers and analysts kiss Brett Favre’s ass for 2 weeks.  And you know it will happen.  Sure all of them hated him in August but once he started winning they started heading further and further up Favre’s ass.

Second do we really want to hear about how Brett played for the Jets last year and the players didn’t like him and are out to get revenge?  Hell no.  I don’t want to hear ONE SINGLE word about Brett Favre after the game recaps on Monday/Tuesday next week.  After that I don’t want Favre’s name mentioned until he starts his annual retiring/unretiring act that he has perfected.

So I am rooting for the Colts (who I think will win) and the Saints (who I picked before the season to win).

Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints (-3.5)

Minnesota embarrassed Dallas last weekend.  Dallas was considered by many to be the hottest team in football and playing better than anyone else after their huge wins (sarcasm intended) over Washington and then twice over Philly.  Wow…how good were the Cowboys?  So now the question has to be…how good are the Vikings?

Well I will tell you…not that good.  Especially on the road.  Did you know…Minnesota is only 4-4 on the road this season with their victories coming over Detroit, Green Bay, Cleveland, and St. Louis.  Wow…not a really impressive grouping.  When the played a good team on the road they lost, Arizona, Pittsburgh, Carolina, and Chicago.  So already the Vikings are in trouble.  Add to that how good the Saints are at home.  Sure they lost their last 2, against Dallas and Tampa but won every other game.  And anyone will tell you that the Superdome is one of the hardest places to play.

But the Vikings have Favre and Adrian Peterson.  So they will obviously be okay.  And their defensive line is awesome so the Saints can’t…blah blah blah.  Peterson hasn’t had a 100 yard running game since week 10 against Detroit.  Even more amazing than that though is he has only averaged OVER 4 yards per carry in 1 game since the Detroit game, and that was week 17 against the nothing to play for Giants.

So Peterson is an average weapon right now.

On to Brett Favre.

The Saints pass defense is 4th in the league in completion percentage allowed (57.5%).  They are 3rd in interceptions with 26.  They have allowed the 5th fewest passing touchdowns all season (15).

All very impressive numbers.  Now lets consider what teams compare to the Saints in those categories….not too many.  The Bills and Jets are probably the closest two.  But the Packers weren’t bad either although they allowed twice as many touchdown passes as the Saints.  Basically what I am saying is that the Vikings have NOT played a defense like the Saints yet this season.

Now let’s look at this game from the other side.

Minnesota allows the 8th highest completion percentage in the league (63.7).  They have only intercepted 11 passes this season, good for 4th fewest.  They have allowed 26 passing touchdown passes which is 10th most in the league.  But they are good at stopping the run, top 5 or 10 in most categories including per rush average, per game total, and touchdowns allowed.

BUT two of their defensive linemen are injured and while they will surely play this weekend they won’t be 100%, Kevin Williams and Ray Edwards.  And many of those impressive running numbers came with middle linebacker E.J. Henderson in the lineup.  He has been out for a few weeks now and won’t be back this weekend so that surely doesn’t hurt.

Drew Brees and the Saints passing game is one of the best in the NFL.  And their running game is also one of the best in the NFL.  So which do you stop if you are the Vikings?  Last week it was easy, while the Cowboys running game is very good, the Dallas passing game makes that team go.  I would say for the Saints both units carry their own weight.  Brees will throw on you if you stack the line while they will also run the ball if you drop 8 into coverage.

Either way I can’t possibly pick against the Saints after picking them in August.  But don’t expect as much of a shootout as some think.  I would imagine it will be an average game with a few punts from both teams and plenty of field goals.

Saints 30 Vikings 20

Okay I have lots to say on the 4 games this weekend so you are going to get 2 posts this weekend.  Each will cover each day’s games and will include my picks.  Today lets start with the Saturday games which are Arizona at New Orleans and Baltimore at Indianapolis.

Cardinals @ Saints (-7)

The debate here is which team is ready to play.  The Cardinals?  Who just came off a ‘who can score more’ win against Green Bay in which neither defense did much until the Cardinals scored a defensive touchdown in overtime to win the game.  How about the Saints?  They had last week off after clinching the #1 seed in the NFC a few weeks ago.  For much of the season they were dominating and beating everyone but finished the season losing 3 straight games.  Which makes everyone question them.

I am torn on this game a bit.  You know a top seed is going to lose.  You aren’t going to see 1 vs 2 matchups in both the AFC and the NFC although that would be awesome.  I know the Saints are not a veteran playoff team having missed the playoffs the last 2 seasons but before that they did make it to the NFC Championship game with Drew Brees at quarterback.  And don’t forget that they do have Darren Sharper on defense who has played in a few big playoff games himself.

Also keep in mind that just because a team ‘backs in’ to the playoffs doesn’t mean they aren’t ready to go….remember the Cardinals last season?  Personally I think there are some definite similarities between the teams, great offenses, average defenses, locked up their divisions early, and are both doubted going into the playoffs.

But the Cardinals are playing well right now and have some momentum after last weeks game.  The Packers were considered a Super Bowl contender going into the game and the Cardinals dominated them for 3+ quarters.  Kurt Warner is playing in what could be his last playoffs and the Cardinals defense, last week not withstanding, was actually pretty good this season.

Here is my biggest concern for the Saints….they barely won multiple games this season.  Remember the Dolphins game?  Or the Redskins game?  They were in trouble in both before pulling it out at the end.  They have been living on the brink all season and could get pushed over this weekend.

KEY PLAYER:

Beanie Wells – Arizona RB

Beanie is the key to this game.  If the Cardinals can run on the Saints and they can change things up a bit they will win this game.  If the Cardinals line up and just throw the football all day the Saints will win because the defense will do more than the Packers defense and the Saints offense is as good as any in football.  If Wells gets his carries (and Hightower too) and can make something out of them the Cards will win.

MY PICK:

I don’t think they will run it enough.  The Cardinals will line up and try to beat the Saints through the air and it will backfire on them.  Darren Sharper will get a pick and Brees will play better than Warner as the Saints win at home.

Saints 34 Cardinals 24

Ravens @ Colts (-7)

This is the game everyone is picking as an upset.  Everyone thinks one of two things, either the Colts are going to be rusty and will lose or that the Colts just aren’t as good as their record and the Ravens play the kind of game that can beat them.

I disagree with BOTH of those ideas.  First of all the rest argument.  Yes I think the Colts might come out a little rusty but I don’t think it will be too noticeable.  The first year or two that the Colts did this sure it hurt them but Peyton and the rest of the offense knows what to do now.  You really think Peyton wasn’t all over his guys the past few weeks to make sure everything is ready to go?  Come on now.

The second argument, that the Ravens will run the ball all day long and Flacco will do enough and the defense can shut down the Colts….bull!  Does anyone remember a certain Monday night game early in the season in Miami?  Does anyone remember that the Dolphins ran the ball all game long and actually had the ball for 3 quarters of the game and still LOST?  Yeah, controlling the ball only works if your pass defense is good enough to stop the opposing offense.

And while the Ravens shut down the (injured) Patriots last week the Colts are NOT the Patriots this season.  Wes Welker was out, Randy Moss was injured, and Tom Brady is reportedly injured a bit.  Other than Anthony Gonzalez, who hasn’t played almost the entire season, they are healthy.  The Ravens secondary has been getting torn up all season and just because they managed to win one game with their defense last week now they are Super Bowl contenders??  Please.

I am sitting here listening to Colin Cowherd talk right now about how without Tony Dungy the Colts defense isn’t the same.  Really?  The Colts defense couldn’t stop the run for years under Dungy.  He is arguing that the Colts defense can’t stop anyone that Peyton has had to outscore everyone this season.  Really?  The Colts won 4 games this season scoring 4 or fewer points.  Meaning the defense had to stop someone.  Oh and that includes a victory over the Ravens.  The Colts defense held the opposition to UNDER 20 points in 1o games including games against the offenses of Arizona, Houston, Tennessee, and Baltimore.

So spare me that the Colts defense isn’t good.  No they aren’t the best in the league.  Sure they might be the worst of the 8 remaining teams but they have done enough this season.  Yes everyone knows the Colts are nothing without Peyton Manning which is why he has won 4 MVP trophies.  Because without Peyton the Colts only win 5-8 games a season at best.  But Peyton is there and he is ready to play right now.

KEY PLAYER:

Joe Flacco – Ravens QB

Sure the Ravens will run the ball during the game.  And they will have success doing it.  But Flacco will HAVE to make some big throws to win this game.  Can he do it?  He completed 4 passes last weekend.  He doesn’t have a lot of playmakers at wide receiver.  Really the best receiver is running back Ray Rice.  Just look to Philadelphia in the past 8 years to see what happens when your best receiver is a running back.  While the Colts pass defense isn’t great they are solid and will cause problems for Flacco.

MY PICK:

Flacco won’t make the plays.  Peyton will.  Colts will win.  The Colts defense will shut down the Ravens passing game and they will do more than the Patriots against the running game.  Which will be enough to win.

Colts 27 Ravens 16