I already took the Colts so scroll down my page if you want to see that post and why and now I need to pick the more difficult of the two games this weekend.
Of all the possible outcomes this weekend a Jets vs Vikings matchup would be horrible to tolerate for 2 weeks. First of all and this will be terrible is if we have to listen to all the sports announcers and analysts kiss Brett Favre’s ass for 2 weeks. And you know it will happen. Sure all of them hated him in August but once he started winning they started heading further and further up Favre’s ass.
Second do we really want to hear about how Brett played for the Jets last year and the players didn’t like him and are out to get revenge? Hell no. I don’t want to hear ONE SINGLE word about Brett Favre after the game recaps on Monday/Tuesday next week. After that I don’t want Favre’s name mentioned until he starts his annual retiring/unretiring act that he has perfected.
So I am rooting for the Colts (who I think will win) and the Saints (who I picked before the season to win).
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
Minnesota embarrassed Dallas last weekend. Dallas was considered by many to be the hottest team in football and playing better than anyone else after their huge wins (sarcasm intended) over Washington and then twice over Philly. Wow…how good were the Cowboys? So now the question has to be…how good are the Vikings?
Well I will tell you…not that good. Especially on the road. Did you know…Minnesota is only 4-4 on the road this season with their victories coming over Detroit, Green Bay, Cleveland, and St. Louis. Wow…not a really impressive grouping. When the played a good team on the road they lost, Arizona, Pittsburgh, Carolina, and Chicago. So already the Vikings are in trouble. Add to that how good the Saints are at home. Sure they lost their last 2, against Dallas and Tampa but won every other game. And anyone will tell you that the Superdome is one of the hardest places to play.
But the Vikings have Favre and Adrian Peterson. So they will obviously be okay. And their defensive line is awesome so the Saints can’t…blah blah blah. Peterson hasn’t had a 100 yard running game since week 10 against Detroit. Even more amazing than that though is he has only averaged OVER 4 yards per carry in 1 game since the Detroit game, and that was week 17 against the nothing to play for Giants.
So Peterson is an average weapon right now.
On to Brett Favre.
The Saints pass defense is 4th in the league in completion percentage allowed (57.5%). They are 3rd in interceptions with 26. They have allowed the 5th fewest passing touchdowns all season (15).
All very impressive numbers. Now lets consider what teams compare to the Saints in those categories….not too many. The Bills and Jets are probably the closest two. But the Packers weren’t bad either although they allowed twice as many touchdown passes as the Saints. Basically what I am saying is that the Vikings have NOT played a defense like the Saints yet this season.
Now let’s look at this game from the other side.
Minnesota allows the 8th highest completion percentage in the league (63.7). They have only intercepted 11 passes this season, good for 4th fewest. They have allowed 26 passing touchdown passes which is 10th most in the league. But they are good at stopping the run, top 5 or 10 in most categories including per rush average, per game total, and touchdowns allowed.
BUT two of their defensive linemen are injured and while they will surely play this weekend they won’t be 100%, Kevin Williams and Ray Edwards. And many of those impressive running numbers came with middle linebacker E.J. Henderson in the lineup. He has been out for a few weeks now and won’t be back this weekend so that surely doesn’t hurt.
Drew Brees and the Saints passing game is one of the best in the NFL. And their running game is also one of the best in the NFL. So which do you stop if you are the Vikings? Last week it was easy, while the Cowboys running game is very good, the Dallas passing game makes that team go. I would say for the Saints both units carry their own weight. Brees will throw on you if you stack the line while they will also run the ball if you drop 8 into coverage.
Either way I can’t possibly pick against the Saints after picking them in August. But don’t expect as much of a shootout as some think. I would imagine it will be an average game with a few punts from both teams and plenty of field goals.
