Well I am awfully happy with myself after this weekend.  If you want to know why just scroll down and see my picks from this past weekend…

4-0

That’s right I picked all 4 games….including the Jets over Chargers.

Sure there was a lot of luck involved in my picks but still I went 4-0.  I wasn’t truly sold on the Jets pick but the other 3 I was awfully confident about and I knew there would be one upset.  And everyone was so sure the Chargers were playing the best football but for some reason everyone forgot that the Chargers had the bye week just like the Saints, Vikings, and Colts who everyone kept asking if they were rusty.  But the Chargers were going to be fine?  Against the Jets defense?

Yeah, I am not surprised the Jets won.

Even better in my eyes is that BEFORE THE SEASON I picked the Saints and Colts for the Super Bowl.  Now obviously that hasn’t happened yet but just having the 2 teams still alive is an achievement in my book.

And EVEN more impressive…I actually had the Vikings vs Saints in the NFC Championship however I thought the Vikes would have had home field advantage.

On the AFC side I had Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship game so that isn’t so good.

This weekends games are going to be tough to pick.  Jets @ Colts and Vikings @ Saints.  If I had to pick right now I would surely go Colts/Saints but 2 things scare me…the Jets defense and Brett Favre.

I REALLY don’t want to hear 2 weeks about Favre so the Saints HAVE to win.

Well last weekend was interesting.  I went 2-2 on my picks getting Saturday’s games correct and Sunday’s games wrong.  And I am pretty sure most people got the New England vs Baltimore game wrong.  Who would have thought that Baltimore would dominate like that?

Unfortunately it was one of the more boring playoff weekends that I can remember.  The Jets/Bengals game was somewhat close but not very interesting as the Jets controlled the game from the start.  The Cowboys/Eagles game was only interesting if you are a Cowboys fan as the Eagles didn’t really show up.  I had the game on but was busy doing other things as I couldn’t watch that crap.  The Ravens/Pats game was a blowout from the opening gun but not in the way any one imagined.  Baltimore opened up a 24-0 lead in the first quarter and ran the ball the rest of the game.

But we were all saved by the Cardinals/Packers game.  Although for the first half it was no more interesting than the Ravens/Pats game as the Cards controlled the play.  But over the final quarter and a half the Packers came alive and it turned into an amazing game.

I thought the Packers were going to win from the very start and considering some of the calls during the game how the Cardinals didn’t get a roughing the passer penalty on the last play I will never know.  But they didn’t and the Cardinals won.  Now they head to New Orleans to challenge another team that heavily favors the pass.

So lets look at the matchups:

Arizona @ New Orleans

Everyone is talking about the Saints and how they haven’t really played well down the stretch.  But what did they have to play for?  Didn’t we all question the Cardinals last year in the same way?  They struggled mightily before getting into the postseason and going all the way to the Super Bowl.  The Saints are a similar team to last season’s Cardinals and don’t think for a minute that Drew Brees and Darren Sharper won’t have that team ready to play.

The Cardinals played the late game on Sunday which didn’t finish until around 8pm Eastern time.  Now they have to play the early game on Saturday in New Orleans….not easy.  Everyone thinks this game will be a shootout but I am not so sure.  I think Warner throws a couple picks and the Saints take control.

Ravens @ Colts

Another rematch from a few weeks ago.  The Colts won that game 17-15 as the Ravens couldn’t put the ball in the endzone.  The Colts haven’t had a meaningful game since Thanksgiving and that has cost them in the past.  When the starters sat out most of weeks 16 and 17 it started to worry me a bit.  Although if the defense got healthy with that week off and the rest the earlier weeks should help them against the Ravens.

The Ravens are coming in with lots of momentum after dominating the Patriots but the Colts aren’t the Pats.  They have all their weapons healthy unlike the Patriots last week.  And you aren’t going to see an 83 yard touchdown run right away against the Colts defense.   But momentum is a powerful thing and the Ravens are confident they can win.

Cowboys @ Vikings

All this talk about how good the Cowboys are playing.  Really?  Let’s look at it.  The won at a New Orleans team that wasn’t playing their best anymore as they had locked up a top 2 seed in the playoffs.  Then they won at Washington…wow that is difficult.  Then they beat the Eagles twice at home.  Sure those were dominating performances.  But the Cowboys were built to beat the Eagles this season.  The Eagles have been struggling with injuries since training camp and their defense was weakened as was the offensive line.

Add to that the fact that Philly only throws the ball and they played right into the Cowboys hands.  But the Vikings have the threat of Adrian Peterson.  And then they have Brett Favre.  While the Eagles were very one dimensional the Vikings are very two dimensional.  Which way does the Cowboys defense focus?  Do they shut down Peterson and risk Favre beating them?  Or do they shut down the passing game and hope Peterson doesn’t get rolling?

Jets @ Chargers

This game is being discussed the least as I think most people figure the Chargers are too good to lose.  I mean they are everyone’s pick to make the Super Bowl.  I was reading the Sporting News yesterday and I think it was 5 of the 6 analysts had picked the Chargers to make the Super Bowl.  But if I am the Chargers I would rather have seen the Patriots in this game.

The Jets stop the run, they stop the pass, and they run the ball.  All the ingredients to win in the postseason no matter what stadium they are playing in.  If the Chargers get frustrated early you will see it on Philip Rivers face and in his play.  He WILL turn the ball over if the Jets can get out to a good start against him.  Personally I think while this isn’t the most interesting game of the weekend right now it might be the best game of the weekend to watch.

I will have my picks later this week (since its already Thursday I don’t think you will have to wait long) so check back then.

So the playoffs are here yet again.  Finally the teams that actually wanted to play in the postseason stepped up and won when they needed to.

Going into week 17 the Jets and Ravens had to win to be in and the Eagles only had to win to clinch the NFC East and a first round bye.  Well the Jets and Ravens won and will face Cincinnati and New England respectively.  But the Eagles…the stinking Eagles…couldn’t score a point and drop from the #2 position all the way to #6 and have to play the Cowboys in Dallas again next weekend.

Which brings me to the next point.  Next weekend we get to see 3 games that we saw this past weekend.  Eagles at the Cowboys, Packers at the Cardinals, and the Bengals hosting the Jets.  And the 4th game, Ravens at Patriots, was played earlier this season as well.  So not a single original matchup amongst the 4.

That isn’t always a bad thing but typically that is because division rivals are facing off in the playoffs.  Other than the Cowboys/Eagles none of the other games feature division rivals.  Sure Ravens/Patriots might be exciting but who wants to see Bengals/Jets or Packers/Cardinals?  I mean honestly.

Either way it is the NFL playoffs and we will all be watching.

To start the season I picked Saints/Colts so I will stick with those picks but neither of those teams are playing this weekend.

So who wins….

NY Jets at Cincinnati Bengals

The Jets dominated this past Sunday night and I don’t see that changing next weekend.  No I don’t think Mark Sanchez can lead this team deep into January nor can the defense carry them too far.  BUT the Bungals have been struggling of late and they will continue to do so.  Jets 23 Bengals 17

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

Dallas won both games this season including 24-0 just yesterday.  The game was closer than the score indicated as the Eagles blew multiple chances with blown plays, dropped passes, and stupid penalties while the Cowboys played an almost perfect game.  And winning 3 games over a team in one season is a tough thing to do.   I will surely be rooting for the Eagles this Saturday and have faith they can pull out the win but will pick the Cowboys here.  Cowboys 27 Eagles 17

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots

The Patriots are 8-0 at home this season but only 2-6 (one win in England) on the road.  Fortunately for them they are playing this game at home.  The Ravens barely got into the playoffs but they play a style of football that could see them hang around for a bit, solid defense with a ball control offense.  But this defense isn’t as good as last seasons and a good passing team can exploit them.  The Pats will.  Patriots 31 Ravens 20

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals

Last years surprise team hosting a team that embarrassed them this past weekend.  The Packers, in Arizona, beat the Cardinals 33-7 in a game that didn’t appear to be that close.  This is probably the toughest game to pick.  Some games the Pack seem like the team to beat and others weren’t nearly as convincing.  But the Cardinals were similar this season.  Some games looking the defending NFC Champs while at other times looking like the…well…Arizona Cardinals.  I see more Cardinals than NFC Champs in this team.  Packers 34 Cardinals 24

So there you go…

Jets and Pats

Boys and Pack

Even though kicker Nick Folk tried to lose the game for the Cowboys they did win which keeps the NFC playoff picture a little cloudy.

So what games are most important for straightening out this playoff mess?

First of all lets figure out what teams have a legitimate shot at the playoffs.  Indy, Minnesota, and New Orleans are in so they are not part of this discussion.

AFC:

San Diego and Cincinnati are all but in.  Since they play each other this week they might not both clinch a spot but they will soon enough.

Denver and New England are in total control of their playoff fate.  If they win out they are in for sure.  Both are 8-5 and the Pats can still win the East division.

After that there are really only 4 teams with a legitimate shot…Baltimore, NY Jets, Miami, and Jacksonville (although they are in trouble after losing to Colts).

NFC:

Green Bay are in a great position and could be in soon.

Arizona only has to get one more game on the 49ers and they are in.  A loss by San Fran and a win by Arizona would put the Cards in as division champs.

Philly and Dallas could be fighting til the last week for the division championship but if that happens then both are likely in the playoffs.

After that it comes down to a few teams, NY Giants and for arguments sake Atlanta and San Fran are still alive but really if the top 6 don’t make it then the Giants are probably the team that blows up the formula.

So what games carry the most weight this weekend?

Cincinnati at San Diego

Interesting matchup as both teams can theoritically clinch their divisions today.  And San Diego can clinch the #2 seed if both Denver and New England lose.  With the sad death of Chris Henry the Bengals should be playing as well as they have all season.  Even with a loss the Bengals still only have to win 1 game to clinch the division while the Chargers need a Denver loss either way.

New England at Buffalo

This game obviously isn’t important for Buffalo but New England needs to win to remain ahead of Miami and the Jets.  Doesn’t seem that difficult right?  Except the Pats are only 1-5 on the road this season and have lost 2 of their last 3.  The Bills bring a top 5 pass defense having allowed only 10 touchdowns through the air all season.  If New England is going to win this game Laurence Maroney will need to have a big game.

Miami at Tennessee

This might be the biggest game as far as playoff lives are concerned.  The Dolphins are in decent position while the Titans are just hanging on at 6-7 but with a Titans win the Dolphins would be all but eliminated as they would fall behind the Titans at 7-7 with only 2 games to play.

Atlanta at NY Jets

The weather will play a huge factor in this game as the winds and cold should be alive and well in Jersey.  Both teams need to win this game to stay alive.  A loss and the Falcons are definitely done while a loss for the Jets wouldn’t be as bad but could still kill their playoff chances.

San Fransisco at Philadelphia

The weather has already affected this game as it will now kick off at 4:15 instead of 1.  But more importantly can the 49ers stay alive in the wild card and divisional races?  Philly also needs to keep winning to stay ahead of the Cowboys who won last night in New Orleans if they want to win the division.  But with a win the Eagles are at least in the playoffs.

Green Bay at Pittsburgh

If the Steelers lose they are done.  If they win they still need lots of help but can help their own cause the last 2 weeks with games against Baltimore and Miami to go.  Green Bay can clinch a wild card spot with a win and a Giants loss.

Some of the other games mean a little but not as much as the games listed above.  Expect plenty of surprises over the last 3 weeks as their always are.

Thank you San Fransisco 49ers.  First of all I was 4-0 with my picks going into that game but you screwed up my undefeated week.  Secondly you didn’t allow the NFC playoff picture to become any clearer.

If Arizona would have won they would have clinched the division and made everything easier…at least a little bit.  The Cardinals still don’t have to do too much and will probably lock up the division soon.  They get the Lions this week and the Rams next…not exactly what I would call a daunting schedule.

But now the 49ers are technically alive again in the NFC.  Not likely but still alive.  At 6-7 they would need to win out (@Philly, Det, @St. Louis) and get help.  I would be shocked (SHOCKED) if they were to win this Sunday in Philly at 1:00 pm eastern time….10:00 am pacific time.  That’s an early start for the Niners.

Thank you to the Eagles who did actually clear up (or start to at least) the NFC East.  They are now in full control of their fate although they were in a very similar position last year before almost blowing it.

Green Bay is still likely to win a wild card spot.  They actually clinch a playoff spot this week if they win AND either Dallas or the Giants lose.  They play Pittsburgh which a few weeks ago looked like a good game…now I would say the Pack should win relatively easily.  If they don’t win they finish the season with Seattle at home and then at Arizona.  Not easy but surely not that hard.  Green Bay is in.

The New York Giants can’t clinch a spot this week but when Dallas loses to New Orleans on Saturday night (which they will) and the Giants beat the Redskins in Washington on Sunday they will be ahead of Dallas and for the time being will be in the playoffs.  In which case they will control their own fate with games against Carolina at home and then on the road against the Vikings who will probably be playing backups in a meaningless game.

Dallas is actually in the right position right now but with games remaining against New Orleans and Philly (with Washington in between) they are going to need to play exceptional football ASAP….not going to happen.

After Dallas there is a logjam of teams hoping both the Giants and the Packers fall apart.  Not going to happen.  If you are not one of the teams mentioned above you are staying home this January.

Now to the AFC…

The East is a mess.  I still think the Jets have a great chance as they should get to 10-6.  They welcome the depleted Atlanta Falcons this Sunday to the Meadowlands.  Then they play @ Indy and at home against Cincinnati.  Sure those teams are good but both should have clinched playoff berths (Indy already has home field advantage) and will be resting players earlier than usual.

The Patriots could throw a wrench into my theory though.  They are 8-5 and control their own fate.  However the Pats finish with 2 road games (and a home date with Jacksonville) and the Pats are 1-5 on the road and that one win was over Tampa Bay in London.  So while they should win this weekend @ Buffalo I wouldn’t bet on it.

The Dolphins are also in the mix but they have a tough schedule left.  This week they are @ Tennessee, then home for Houston, and then they welcome the Steelers to Florida.  If I am right and the Jets win out the Dolphins (who WILL lose one of the three) will end up 1 game back.  But if they can win out they own the tiebreaker with the Jets.

The North is easy.  Cincy wins the division with a win OR a Baltimore loss.  They will win the division but probably not til next week when they play Kansas City.

The West is also easy.  The Chargers will win it.  They are 2 games up on Denver and are great in December.  They will clinch the division if they win and Denver loses.  San Diego will win this week but Denver should beat Oakland.  The Chargers will win the division but it might take another week to be official.

As for the Wild Card…just roll some dice.  There are 9 teams (if you include all the East teams minus Buffalo) that have a legitimate shot at it.  I am not going to get into it here.

To see who I think will get to the playoffs just view my updated Power 12 list.