I haven’t made picks in a couple weeks due to the holidays and illness but I finished by shortened NFL season at 15-15.  Now there are 11 games left to pick starting this weekend with the Wild Card matchups.

So who to bet on….

NY Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)

Well this game (like 2 others this weekend) happened last weekend.  Although that game was played in New York and the Bungals had minimal to play for.  Even still I think the Jets showed that they can definitely win this game.  They are confident and the Bengals are struggling. 

Sure the Bengals will actually have a full complement of players this week (Cedric Benson did not play last Sunday) but I still think the Jets are playing better right now.  Cincy has been struggling for weeks and the Jets have been playing pretty well even if the competition has been lacking.

Look for more of the same.

Jets 23 Bengals 16

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (-4)

Another game that happened last weekend.  Another game in which one team dominated.  The difference between the games….both these teams actually had something to play for.  The Eagles would have earned the #2 seed and a first round bye with a win but reportedly they held a lot back and the Cowboys dominated 24-0.

Even though Andy Reid is a very good playoff coach and the Cowboys have not won a playoff game since 1997 I still am not sure about the Eagles here.  Since they are my team I will surely be rooting for them and I do believe they can win. 

BUT if I were a betting man I would take the Cowboys.

Cowboys 24 Eagles 17

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots (-3.5)

This is the only game this weekend that didn’t happen last weekend.  Instead this happened back in week 4 and the Patriots won at home.  But it wasn’t a convincing win and the Ravens are playing well right now.  With the NFL’s leading receiver, Wes Welker, being lost for a while can the Patriots still move the ball effectively?

I think so.  The Baltimore pass defense is not what I would call sturdy.  Although neither is the Patriots defense and the Ravens could move the ball easily against the Pats again.  This matchup might be the highest scoring of the weekend depending on weather and if the Ravens secondary can match up.

I like the Pats.

Patriots 31 Ravens 17

Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)

The third game to happen last week was an absolute beat down for the Packers.  They handled everything the Cardinals threw at them and left with a 33-7 win in the desert.

Will this week be any different?  Neither team had too much to play for last week as both were pretty much locked in to their playoff positions.  The Cardinals weren’t playing great last season heading into the playoffs either and ended up in the Super Bowl…can it happen again?

I don’t think so.  The Packers are every one’s sleeper pick to make the SB and I don’t see them losing here.

Packers 34 Cardinals 21

There you go.  2 road teams and 2 home teams.  No real surprises this weekend.  Sure I will be hoping to go 3-1 as I am hoping the Eagles can pull out a victory but I don’t see it as likely.

Hopefully we see 4 good competitive games this weekend.

Well last week was pretty good.  I managed to go 4-1 and now rest at 15-15 on the season (I started late).  This week is a tough one and I am figuring out my picks as I type this…literally…so bear with me.

Packers (+1) @ Steelers

Let’s face it…the Steelers are over rated.  They have been terrible all season against the spread (3-10) and have been particularly bad the past 5 weeks (0-5).  At home they are only 2-4 while the Packers are 4-2 on the road.  I think the Steelers could pull this out but I will take the Pack to win in what equates to a pick-em.

Falcons @ Jets (-4.5)

This is a bit of a change from my original plan.  This really comes down to the weather.  It is going to be cold and windy in New York and with the Jets defense playing well again I don’t think Atlanta will be able to move the ball at all.

Texans (-10) @ Rams

The Rams are actually a respectable 6-7 against the spread this season but the Texans are an impressive 4-2 on the road and with the way they played last week and with the playoffs on the line (a reach but still alive) I think they come out and pound the Rams.

Bucs @ Seahawks (-7)

Seattle at home is always tough to beat even against good teams.  This game might actually be a reach but my decision is based on two things…one the Seahawks are at home and Tampa is no where near Seattle…and two the Seahawks are 3-1 in games they were favored to win this season.  Make it 4-1.

Giants @ Redskins (+3)

I have been burned multiple times by the Skins this season and if my memory serves me correct I am also 0-3 on Monday night.  But the Skins have been solid of late (5-0 ATS last 5 weeks) while the Giants have been terrible since week 5 (1-7 in last 8).

Last week I took 5 road teams and ended up 4-1.  This week it is more even and I intend to go 5-0 but I would accept 3-2 as I would be over .500 for the year.

First things first…I am not exactly great at this yet.  I am trying to let the wife let me gamble for real money but she insists that I can’t and won’t let me.  So I have been picking games the past 5 weeks to try and show her that I actually know what I am talking about.

Unfortunately I should have stopped after 2 weeks.  I started out 3-2, then went to 6-4, then to 8-7, and now I am 11-14 and would be in the red this season so far.

But that is all going to change over the next 4 weeks and the playoffs.  I will make it out of this season with a winning record or at least breaking even.

I have been picking 5 games each week and will continue to do so until the playoffs when I will instead just pick every game.

So here are my picks for week 14…..

Jets (-3) @ Bucs

First of all if you read my Power 12 page you will see that I like the Jets to actually win the division so winning this game is a must.  Second the Jets are 6-6 ATS this season and 3-3 on the road…nothing to write home about except that the Bucs are only 1-5 ATS at home.

Packers (-3) @ Bears

Really?  Only giving 3 points to the lowly Bears?  This surprises me a bit but when you look closer you can see that the Bears are actually better at home then on the road (3-3 ATS at home and 1-5 on the road) but the Packers are solid either place with a 7-4-1 ATS this season and 3-1-1 on the road.

Chargers (+3) @ Cowboys

If you look at the ATS records you will see that the Cowboys are 4-2 ATS at home while the Chargers are only 3-3 ATS on the road.  But call it a hunch I think the Cowboys implode down the stretch again this year.  Also remember that the Chargers are 5-2 in their last 7 ATS with the 2 losses in that stretch against Oakland in week 8 (-16.5) and Cleveland in week 13 (-13).

Cardinals (-3.5) @ 49ers

The 49ers are actually a very respectable 8-3-1 ATS this season.  But 5-0-1 of that are on the road.  At home they struggle a bit more and are still a solid 3-3 but the Cardinals are 4-2 ATS on the road.  Being that it is only 3.5 I feel confident in the Cards this week.

Dolphins (+2.5) @ Jaguars

This was my toughest pick of the week.  I looked at 9 of the 15 games for Sunday and Monday and this is one that I am more confident in compared to others but not by much.  Miami is 3-3 ATS on the road while the Jags are just 2-4 ATS at home.

So there you go…those are my picks.   Hopefully I can go at least 4-1 and get back to .500 on the season but I am obviously shooting for 5-0.   Oh and I just realized that I took all road teams this week.  Not sure what that means but oh well.