I took a week to be impressed with myself after picking both the Saints and the Colts back in August.  Now I am back to really examine the two teams before the match up Sunday at 6ish in Miami.

Each day I will examine a portion of each team’s offense and defense which will get us through Thursday.  Friday will be my picks and maybe I will throw something else up for Saturday and Sunday.  Enjoy the week…I know I am excited!

Indianapolis Colts Offense

The Colts offense obviously starts and stops with the best quarterback in NFL history Peyton Manning.  No one can argue that fact (the offense part not the best in history part) but he is not the only piece that matters.  While the running game has been abysmal for much of the season they do just enough to keep defenses honest.  Without running often Peyton’s play action would be meaningless.  But they run enough and defenses bite enough to make it effective.

The offensive line showed a lot against the Jets.  They were getting blitzed and beaten every play for the first 7-10 minutes of the game.  Then adjustments were made by the line and the play calling which pretty much made the Jets blitz meaningless for the rest of the game.

I always say that I would rather start off a game struggling a bit while the other team is playing perfect.  As long as you keep the score close the proper adjustments WILL be made by the struggling team while the perfect team continues down the same path.

That is what the Colts continuously due.  And much of that credit goes to Manning and his line.  They know what the other needs to do and wants to do and they do it brilliantly.  Peyton makes even the weakest part of an offense look exceptional at times.  I swear that the running game has been more effective (yardage wise) than it really has and that is because Peyton is so efficient.

The wide receivers are the story of the season and will probably be the story of the Super Bowl.  The reason I was so confident against the Jets was that while I knew Revis would shut down Reggie Wayne I knew Austin Collie and/or Pierre Garcon would have big days.  Honestly I didn’t think both would go off but they both did.  And now Peyton and and company are getting set to play in Miami.

Will the Saints defense be up to the challenge in shutting down all the Colts weapons?  You shut down Wayne and Dallas Clark but Collie and Garcon blow up.  Shut down Collie and Wayne while Garcon and Clark have big days.  And if you could possibly shut down 3 of the receivers, lets say Wayne, Collie and Clark, then you have to contend with Joseph Addai and Donald Brown coming out of the backfield.

If you sit back too much to shut down the passing game I guarantee Addai will run the ball often.  The Vikings torched the Saints run defense and while Addai and the Colts offensive line isn’t as good as Peterson and the Vikings line you can bet your top dollar that they will be more than good enough to win this game.

I don’t see the Saints defense shutting down Peyton and company too much.  The question is…can the Saints offense score more??

Let’s examine this tomorrow.

Ok, I haven’t posted much this week as I have been patting myself on the back all week for having 3 of the 4 Championship game teams right before the season.

But now the games are almost here and we all want to know who is going to win.  I mean anyone playing the ESPN Playoff Challenge thing is banking on teams getting in because they can’t update their roster after this weekends games.  If you miss this weekend you are going to lose the following week.

So I am here to tell you who is going to win.  Here I will discuss the Jets/Colts game and later (maybe tomorrow morning) the Vikings/Saints game will be debated.

New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts (-7.5)

The Jets shocked 90% off the world last weekend by beating the Chargers IN San Diego.  But honestly I wasn’t surprised.  No I wasn’t overly confident in my pick and surely wouldn’t have bet real money on it but I did suspect that the Jets could win.  They can thank Nate Kaeding for the victory as the kicker missed 3 field goals, 2 of which were extremely make able.

Can they do it again?  I have heard some people talk about it and make it sound like they are the perfect team to beat the Colts and I tend to  disagree with that.  They were the perfect team to beat the Chargers, but the Colts aren’t the Chargers.  The Chargers only had one good receiver, Malcolm Floyd is average at best, and the Jets have the single best cornerback in football today.  But the rest of the secondary is not as strong.

Peyton Manning throws the ball to a number of different receivers, all of which can catch the ball and make plays.  Sure their running game is pathetic but they run the ball enough to make the play action pass very effective.  Add to that Kerry Rhodes is a little banged up in the Jets secondary and the Jets are fighting an extremely uphill battle this weekend.

The Colts defense heard all last week how the Ravens were going to run the ball 50 times and dominate the clock and the game on their way to the Super Bowl.  But the small, weak, soft Colts defense managed to hold the Ravens to 3 points and only 87 yards rushing.  And it wasn’t like Baltimore was that far behind most of the game, Indy was only up 2 touchdowns until 7 minutes left in the 4th quarter.  The key…the Colts forced 4 turnovers, 2 fumbles and 2 interceptions.

Don’t think they can’t do that again.  The Jets are very similar to the Ravens, dominant running game and a very good defense.  The one big difference between the two is the Jets pass defense is better than the Ravens.

But New York won’t win this game.  And the Colts will cover.

Colts 24 Jets 13

Okay I have lots to say on the 4 games this weekend so you are going to get 2 posts this weekend.  Each will cover each day’s games and will include my picks.  Today lets start with the Saturday games which are Arizona at New Orleans and Baltimore at Indianapolis.

Cardinals @ Saints (-7)

The debate here is which team is ready to play.  The Cardinals?  Who just came off a ‘who can score more’ win against Green Bay in which neither defense did much until the Cardinals scored a defensive touchdown in overtime to win the game.  How about the Saints?  They had last week off after clinching the #1 seed in the NFC a few weeks ago.  For much of the season they were dominating and beating everyone but finished the season losing 3 straight games.  Which makes everyone question them.

I am torn on this game a bit.  You know a top seed is going to lose.  You aren’t going to see 1 vs 2 matchups in both the AFC and the NFC although that would be awesome.  I know the Saints are not a veteran playoff team having missed the playoffs the last 2 seasons but before that they did make it to the NFC Championship game with Drew Brees at quarterback.  And don’t forget that they do have Darren Sharper on defense who has played in a few big playoff games himself.

Also keep in mind that just because a team ‘backs in’ to the playoffs doesn’t mean they aren’t ready to go….remember the Cardinals last season?  Personally I think there are some definite similarities between the teams, great offenses, average defenses, locked up their divisions early, and are both doubted going into the playoffs.

But the Cardinals are playing well right now and have some momentum after last weeks game.  The Packers were considered a Super Bowl contender going into the game and the Cardinals dominated them for 3+ quarters.  Kurt Warner is playing in what could be his last playoffs and the Cardinals defense, last week not withstanding, was actually pretty good this season.

Here is my biggest concern for the Saints….they barely won multiple games this season.  Remember the Dolphins game?  Or the Redskins game?  They were in trouble in both before pulling it out at the end.  They have been living on the brink all season and could get pushed over this weekend.

KEY PLAYER:

Beanie Wells – Arizona RB

Beanie is the key to this game.  If the Cardinals can run on the Saints and they can change things up a bit they will win this game.  If the Cardinals line up and just throw the football all day the Saints will win because the defense will do more than the Packers defense and the Saints offense is as good as any in football.  If Wells gets his carries (and Hightower too) and can make something out of them the Cards will win.

MY PICK:

I don’t think they will run it enough.  The Cardinals will line up and try to beat the Saints through the air and it will backfire on them.  Darren Sharper will get a pick and Brees will play better than Warner as the Saints win at home.

Saints 34 Cardinals 24

Ravens @ Colts (-7)

This is the game everyone is picking as an upset.  Everyone thinks one of two things, either the Colts are going to be rusty and will lose or that the Colts just aren’t as good as their record and the Ravens play the kind of game that can beat them.

I disagree with BOTH of those ideas.  First of all the rest argument.  Yes I think the Colts might come out a little rusty but I don’t think it will be too noticeable.  The first year or two that the Colts did this sure it hurt them but Peyton and the rest of the offense knows what to do now.  You really think Peyton wasn’t all over his guys the past few weeks to make sure everything is ready to go?  Come on now.

The second argument, that the Ravens will run the ball all day long and Flacco will do enough and the defense can shut down the Colts….bull!  Does anyone remember a certain Monday night game early in the season in Miami?  Does anyone remember that the Dolphins ran the ball all game long and actually had the ball for 3 quarters of the game and still LOST?  Yeah, controlling the ball only works if your pass defense is good enough to stop the opposing offense.

And while the Ravens shut down the (injured) Patriots last week the Colts are NOT the Patriots this season.  Wes Welker was out, Randy Moss was injured, and Tom Brady is reportedly injured a bit.  Other than Anthony Gonzalez, who hasn’t played almost the entire season, they are healthy.  The Ravens secondary has been getting torn up all season and just because they managed to win one game with their defense last week now they are Super Bowl contenders??  Please.

I am sitting here listening to Colin Cowherd talk right now about how without Tony Dungy the Colts defense isn’t the same.  Really?  The Colts defense couldn’t stop the run for years under Dungy.  He is arguing that the Colts defense can’t stop anyone that Peyton has had to outscore everyone this season.  Really?  The Colts won 4 games this season scoring 4 or fewer points.  Meaning the defense had to stop someone.  Oh and that includes a victory over the Ravens.  The Colts defense held the opposition to UNDER 20 points in 1o games including games against the offenses of Arizona, Houston, Tennessee, and Baltimore.

So spare me that the Colts defense isn’t good.  No they aren’t the best in the league.  Sure they might be the worst of the 8 remaining teams but they have done enough this season.  Yes everyone knows the Colts are nothing without Peyton Manning which is why he has won 4 MVP trophies.  Because without Peyton the Colts only win 5-8 games a season at best.  But Peyton is there and he is ready to play right now.

KEY PLAYER:

Joe Flacco – Ravens QB

Sure the Ravens will run the ball during the game.  And they will have success doing it.  But Flacco will HAVE to make some big throws to win this game.  Can he do it?  He completed 4 passes last weekend.  He doesn’t have a lot of playmakers at wide receiver.  Really the best receiver is running back Ray Rice.  Just look to Philadelphia in the past 8 years to see what happens when your best receiver is a running back.  While the Colts pass defense isn’t great they are solid and will cause problems for Flacco.

MY PICK:

Flacco won’t make the plays.  Peyton will.  Colts will win.  The Colts defense will shut down the Ravens passing game and they will do more than the Patriots against the running game.  Which will be enough to win.

Colts 27 Ravens 16