Cardinals @ Saints (-7)

The debate here is which team is ready to play.  The Cardinals?  Who just came off a ‘who can score more’ win against Green Bay in which neither defense did much until the Cardinals scored a defensive touchdown in overtime to win the game.  How about the Saints?  They had last week off after clinching the #1 seed in the NFC a few weeks ago.  For much of the season they were dominating and beating everyone but finished the season losing 3 straight games.  Which makes everyone question them.

I am torn on this game a bit.  You know a top seed is going to lose.  You aren’t going to see 1 vs 2 matchups in both the AFC and the NFC although that would be awesome.  I know the Saints are not a veteran playoff team having missed the playoffs the last 2 seasons but before that they did make it to the NFC Championship game with Drew Brees at quarterback.  And don’t forget that they do have Darren Sharper on defense who has played in a few big playoff games himself.

Also keep in mind that just because a team ‘backs in’ to the playoffs doesn’t mean they aren’t ready to go….remember the Cardinals last season?  Personally I think there are some definite similarities between the teams, great offenses, average defenses, locked up their divisions early, and are both doubted going into the playoffs.

But the Cardinals are playing well right now and have some momentum after last weeks game.  The Packers were considered a Super Bowl contender going into the game and the Cardinals dominated them for 3+ quarters.  Kurt Warner is playing in what could be his last playoffs and the Cardinals defense, last week not withstanding, was actually pretty good this season.

Here is my biggest concern for the Saints….they barely won multiple games this season.  Remember the Dolphins game?  Or the Redskins game?  They were in trouble in both before pulling it out at the end.  They have been living on the brink all season and could get pushed over this weekend.

KEY PLAYER:

Beanie Wells – Arizona RB

Beanie is the key to this game.  If the Cardinals can run on the Saints and they can change things up a bit they will win this game.  If the Cardinals line up and just throw the football all day the Saints will win because the defense will do more than the Packers defense and the Saints offense is as good as any in football.  If Wells gets his carries (and Hightower too) and can make something out of them the Cards will win.

MY PICK:

I don’t think they will run it enough.  The Cardinals will line up and try to beat the Saints through the air and it will backfire on them.  Darren Sharper will get a pick and Brees will play better than Warner as the Saints win at home.

Saints 34 Cardinals 24

Ravens @ Colts (-7)

This is the game everyone is picking as an upset.  Everyone thinks one of two things, either the Colts are going to be rusty and will lose or that the Colts just aren’t as good as their record and the Ravens play the kind of game that can beat them.

I disagree with BOTH of those ideas.  First of all the rest argument.  Yes I think the Colts might come out a little rusty but I don’t think it will be too noticeable.  The first year or two that the Colts did this sure it hurt them but Peyton and the rest of the offense knows what to do now.  You really think Peyton wasn’t all over his guys the past few weeks to make sure everything is ready to go?  Come on now.

The second argument, that the Ravens will run the ball all day long and Flacco will do enough and the defense can shut down the Colts….bull!  Does anyone remember a certain Monday night game early in the season in Miami?  Does anyone remember that the Dolphins ran the ball all game long and actually had the ball for 3 quarters of the game and still LOST?  Yeah, controlling the ball only works if your pass defense is good enough to stop the opposing offense.

And while the Ravens shut down the (injured) Patriots last week the Colts are NOT the Patriots this season.  Wes Welker was out, Randy Moss was injured, and Tom Brady is reportedly injured a bit.  Other than Anthony Gonzalez, who hasn’t played almost the entire season, they are healthy.  The Ravens secondary has been getting torn up all season and just because they managed to win one game with their defense last week now they are Super Bowl contenders??  Please.

I am sitting here listening to Colin Cowherd talk right now about how without Tony Dungy the Colts defense isn’t the same.  Really?  The Colts defense couldn’t stop the run for years under Dungy.  He is arguing that the Colts defense can’t stop anyone that Peyton has had to outscore everyone this season.  Really?  The Colts won 4 games this season scoring 4 or fewer points.  Meaning the defense had to stop someone.  Oh and that includes a victory over the Ravens.  The Colts defense held the opposition to UNDER 20 points in 1o games including games against the offenses of Arizona, Houston, Tennessee, and Baltimore.

So spare me that the Colts defense isn’t good.  No they aren’t the best in the league.  Sure they might be the worst of the 8 remaining teams but they have done enough this season.  Yes everyone knows the Colts are nothing without Peyton Manning which is why he has won 4 MVP trophies.  Because without Peyton the Colts only win 5-8 games a season at best.  But Peyton is there and he is ready to play right now.

KEY PLAYER:

Joe Flacco – Ravens QB

Sure the Ravens will run the ball during the game.  And they will have success doing it.  But Flacco will HAVE to make some big throws to win this game.  Can he do it?  He completed 4 passes last weekend.  He doesn’t have a lot of playmakers at wide receiver.  Really the best receiver is running back Ray Rice.  Just look to Philadelphia in the past 8 years to see what happens when your best receiver is a running back.  While the Colts pass defense isn’t great they are solid and will cause problems for Flacco.

MY PICK:

Flacco won’t make the plays.  Peyton will.  Colts will win.  The Colts defense will shut down the Ravens passing game and they will do more than the Patriots against the running game.  Which will be enough to win.

Colts 27 Ravens 16