First things first…I am not exactly great at this yet. I am trying to let the wife let me gamble for real money but she insists that I can’t and won’t let me. So I have been picking games the past 5 weeks to try and show her that I actually know what I am talking about.
Unfortunately I should have stopped after 2 weeks. I started out 3-2, then went to 6-4, then to 8-7, and now I am 11-14 and would be in the red this season so far.
But that is all going to change over the next 4 weeks and the playoffs. I will make it out of this season with a winning record or at least breaking even.
I have been picking 5 games each week and will continue to do so until the playoffs when I will instead just pick every game.
So here are my picks for week 14…..
Jets (-3) @ Bucs
First of all if you read my Power 12 page you will see that I like the Jets to actually win the division so winning this game is a must. Second the Jets are 6-6 ATS this season and 3-3 on the road…nothing to write home about except that the Bucs are only 1-5 ATS at home.
Packers (-3) @ Bears
Really? Only giving 3 points to the lowly Bears? This surprises me a bit but when you look closer you can see that the Bears are actually better at home then on the road (3-3 ATS at home and 1-5 on the road) but the Packers are solid either place with a 7-4-1 ATS this season and 3-1-1 on the road.
Chargers (+3) @ Cowboys
If you look at the ATS records you will see that the Cowboys are 4-2 ATS at home while the Chargers are only 3-3 ATS on the road. But call it a hunch I think the Cowboys implode down the stretch again this year. Also remember that the Chargers are 5-2 in their last 7 ATS with the 2 losses in that stretch against Oakland in week 8 (-16.5) and Cleveland in week 13 (-13).
Cardinals (-3.5) @ 49ers
The 49ers are actually a very respectable 8-3-1 ATS this season. But 5-0-1 of that are on the road. At home they struggle a bit more and are still a solid 3-3 but the Cardinals are 4-2 ATS on the road. Being that it is only 3.5 I feel confident in the Cards this week.
Dolphins (+2.5) @ Jaguars
This was my toughest pick of the week. I looked at 9 of the 15 games for Sunday and Monday and this is one that I am more confident in compared to others but not by much. Miami is 3-3 ATS on the road while the Jags are just 2-4 ATS at home.
So there you go…those are my picks. Hopefully I can go at least 4-1 and get back to .500 on the season but I am obviously shooting for 5-0. Oh and I just realized that I took all road teams this week. Not sure what that means but oh well.
