Even though kicker Nick Folk tried to lose the game for the Cowboys they did win which keeps the NFC playoff picture a little cloudy.

So what games are most important for straightening out this playoff mess?

First of all lets figure out what teams have a legitimate shot at the playoffs.  Indy, Minnesota, and New Orleans are in so they are not part of this discussion.

AFC:

San Diego and Cincinnati are all but in.  Since they play each other this week they might not both clinch a spot but they will soon enough.

Denver and New England are in total control of their playoff fate.  If they win out they are in for sure.  Both are 8-5 and the Pats can still win the East division.

After that there are really only 4 teams with a legitimate shot…Baltimore, NY Jets, Miami, and Jacksonville (although they are in trouble after losing to Colts).

NFC:

Green Bay are in a great position and could be in soon.

Arizona only has to get one more game on the 49ers and they are in.  A loss by San Fran and a win by Arizona would put the Cards in as division champs.

Philly and Dallas could be fighting til the last week for the division championship but if that happens then both are likely in the playoffs.

After that it comes down to a few teams, NY Giants and for arguments sake Atlanta and San Fran are still alive but really if the top 6 don’t make it then the Giants are probably the team that blows up the formula.

So what games carry the most weight this weekend?

Cincinnati at San Diego

Interesting matchup as both teams can theoritically clinch their divisions today.  And San Diego can clinch the #2 seed if both Denver and New England lose.  With the sad death of Chris Henry the Bengals should be playing as well as they have all season.  Even with a loss the Bengals still only have to win 1 game to clinch the division while the Chargers need a Denver loss either way.

New England at Buffalo

This game obviously isn’t important for Buffalo but New England needs to win to remain ahead of Miami and the Jets.  Doesn’t seem that difficult right?  Except the Pats are only 1-5 on the road this season and have lost 2 of their last 3.  The Bills bring a top 5 pass defense having allowed only 10 touchdowns through the air all season.  If New England is going to win this game Laurence Maroney will need to have a big game.

Miami at Tennessee

This might be the biggest game as far as playoff lives are concerned.  The Dolphins are in decent position while the Titans are just hanging on at 6-7 but with a Titans win the Dolphins would be all but eliminated as they would fall behind the Titans at 7-7 with only 2 games to play.

Atlanta at NY Jets

The weather will play a huge factor in this game as the winds and cold should be alive and well in Jersey.  Both teams need to win this game to stay alive.  A loss and the Falcons are definitely done while a loss for the Jets wouldn’t be as bad but could still kill their playoff chances.

San Fransisco at Philadelphia

The weather has already affected this game as it will now kick off at 4:15 instead of 1.  But more importantly can the 49ers stay alive in the wild card and divisional races?  Philly also needs to keep winning to stay ahead of the Cowboys who won last night in New Orleans if they want to win the division.  But with a win the Eagles are at least in the playoffs.

Green Bay at Pittsburgh

If the Steelers lose they are done.  If they win they still need lots of help but can help their own cause the last 2 weeks with games against Baltimore and Miami to go.  Green Bay can clinch a wild card spot with a win and a Giants loss.

Some of the other games mean a little but not as much as the games listed above.  Expect plenty of surprises over the last 3 weeks as their always are.

Well last week was pretty good.  I managed to go 4-1 and now rest at 15-15 on the season (I started late).  This week is a tough one and I am figuring out my picks as I type this…literally…so bear with me.

Packers (+1) @ Steelers

Let’s face it…the Steelers are over rated.  They have been terrible all season against the spread (3-10) and have been particularly bad the past 5 weeks (0-5).  At home they are only 2-4 while the Packers are 4-2 on the road.  I think the Steelers could pull this out but I will take the Pack to win in what equates to a pick-em.

Falcons @ Jets (-4.5)

This is a bit of a change from my original plan.  This really comes down to the weather.  It is going to be cold and windy in New York and with the Jets defense playing well again I don’t think Atlanta will be able to move the ball at all.

Texans (-10) @ Rams

The Rams are actually a respectable 6-7 against the spread this season but the Texans are an impressive 4-2 on the road and with the way they played last week and with the playoffs on the line (a reach but still alive) I think they come out and pound the Rams.

Bucs @ Seahawks (-7)

Seattle at home is always tough to beat even against good teams.  This game might actually be a reach but my decision is based on two things…one the Seahawks are at home and Tampa is no where near Seattle…and two the Seahawks are 3-1 in games they were favored to win this season.  Make it 4-1.

Giants @ Redskins (+3)

I have been burned multiple times by the Skins this season and if my memory serves me correct I am also 0-3 on Monday night.  But the Skins have been solid of late (5-0 ATS last 5 weeks) while the Giants have been terrible since week 5 (1-7 in last 8).

Last week I took 5 road teams and ended up 4-1.  This week it is more even and I intend to go 5-0 but I would accept 3-2 as I would be over .500 for the year.

Jacksonville had to win last night in order to have a shot at the playoffs…at least in my expert opinion.  They were 7-6 heading into the game with a realistic shot at making it to 9-7 and possible 10-6.  But they had to win against Indianapolis.

I actually thought they would.  I picked them to win and thought they would pull it out but the offense and defense couldn’t muster enough will and desire to beat the still undefeated Colts.

The Jaguars have now lost 3 of 4 and will lose again next week.  They visit New England.  I mentioned elsewhere that the Pats aren’t a great team this year but at home they are almost unbeatable and considering the Jags are poor on the road anywhere they will surely struggle in the cold New England weather.

With the loss the Jags actually fall below all the 7-6 teams remaining in the AFC (Miami, Baltimore, New York) and could fall behind teams like Pittsburgh, Tennessee, and Houston depending on this weeks outcomes.

The only saving grace for the Jags and their fans is that they do have a game against Cleveland left.  But it is also on the road and in the cold….not good for an average team from Florida.

IF and honestly its a big if they can muster up a win in New England next Sunday they would have an outside shot at making the playoffs.  But they would need help and that is never a good spot to be in this late in the season…just ask the Cowboys!

Thank you San Fransisco 49ers.  First of all I was 4-0 with my picks going into that game but you screwed up my undefeated week.  Secondly you didn’t allow the NFC playoff picture to become any clearer.

If Arizona would have won they would have clinched the division and made everything easier…at least a little bit.  The Cardinals still don’t have to do too much and will probably lock up the division soon.  They get the Lions this week and the Rams next…not exactly what I would call a daunting schedule.

But now the 49ers are technically alive again in the NFC.  Not likely but still alive.  At 6-7 they would need to win out (@Philly, Det, @St. Louis) and get help.  I would be shocked (SHOCKED) if they were to win this Sunday in Philly at 1:00 pm eastern time….10:00 am pacific time.  That’s an early start for the Niners.

Thank you to the Eagles who did actually clear up (or start to at least) the NFC East.  They are now in full control of their fate although they were in a very similar position last year before almost blowing it.

Green Bay is still likely to win a wild card spot.  They actually clinch a playoff spot this week if they win AND either Dallas or the Giants lose.  They play Pittsburgh which a few weeks ago looked like a good game…now I would say the Pack should win relatively easily.  If they don’t win they finish the season with Seattle at home and then at Arizona.  Not easy but surely not that hard.  Green Bay is in.

The New York Giants can’t clinch a spot this week but when Dallas loses to New Orleans on Saturday night (which they will) and the Giants beat the Redskins in Washington on Sunday they will be ahead of Dallas and for the time being will be in the playoffs.  In which case they will control their own fate with games against Carolina at home and then on the road against the Vikings who will probably be playing backups in a meaningless game.

Dallas is actually in the right position right now but with games remaining against New Orleans and Philly (with Washington in between) they are going to need to play exceptional football ASAP….not going to happen.

After Dallas there is a logjam of teams hoping both the Giants and the Packers fall apart.  Not going to happen.  If you are not one of the teams mentioned above you are staying home this January.

Now to the AFC…

The East is a mess.  I still think the Jets have a great chance as they should get to 10-6.  They welcome the depleted Atlanta Falcons this Sunday to the Meadowlands.  Then they play @ Indy and at home against Cincinnati.  Sure those teams are good but both should have clinched playoff berths (Indy already has home field advantage) and will be resting players earlier than usual.

The Patriots could throw a wrench into my theory though.  They are 8-5 and control their own fate.  However the Pats finish with 2 road games (and a home date with Jacksonville) and the Pats are 1-5 on the road and that one win was over Tampa Bay in London.  So while they should win this weekend @ Buffalo I wouldn’t bet on it.

The Dolphins are also in the mix but they have a tough schedule left.  This week they are @ Tennessee, then home for Houston, and then they welcome the Steelers to Florida.  If I am right and the Jets win out the Dolphins (who WILL lose one of the three) will end up 1 game back.  But if they can win out they own the tiebreaker with the Jets.

The North is easy.  Cincy wins the division with a win OR a Baltimore loss.  They will win the division but probably not til next week when they play Kansas City.

The West is also easy.  The Chargers will win it.  They are 2 games up on Denver and are great in December.  They will clinch the division if they win and Denver loses.  San Diego will win this week but Denver should beat Oakland.  The Chargers will win the division but it might take another week to be official.

As for the Wild Card…just roll some dice.  There are 9 teams (if you include all the East teams minus Buffalo) that have a legitimate shot at it.  I am not going to get into it here.

To see who I think will get to the playoffs just view my updated Power 12 list.

What happened to the Eagles/Giants rivalry?  It used to be a physical defensive battle.  Last night though the teams combined for over 800 yards and over 80 points.

Don’t get me wrong it was a very entertaining game but not what I expected.  Every time the Eagles got a lead it seemed like the Giants responded.  Three times the Eagles had 14 point leads (and another 13 point lead) but they couldn’t hold them.

The Eagles though are in total control of their playoff fate now.  They are a game ahead of the Cowboys and 2 games up on the Giants in the division with a game against Dallas yet to come.  With 3 games remaining and the Cowboys getting the Saints next weekend the division could be wrapped up soon.

Next week the Birds welcome the 49ers to Philadelphia for a 1:00 start.  West coast teams always struggle with early starts on the East coast anyway but add to that a short week for the Niners and well a poor team to begin with and the Eagles should be 6+ point favorites next weekend.

The only question going forward for Philly should be…the running game.  It seems like this is the question every single season but it rarely gets truly better.  This year it started to look okay with Lesean McCoy but has recently fallen back to normal.  Leonard Weaver had almost as many carries and had more yards than McCoy last night.  And while Weaver looked good is he really going to be the #1 running back?

I am beginning to think that the problem isn’t in the running backs as much as in the running game.  Andy Reid doesn’t want to run the ball and the reason is because he doesn’t know how to install a running game.  McCoy, Brian Westbrook, Duce Staley, and many others have had the ability but once McNabb gained a solid grasp of the passing game and remaining in the pocket the run game began to fade and is now non-existent.

While a running game is not critical to winning a Super Bowl it is definitely something you would want to have some consistency by then.  Hopefully I am wrong but I feel as though the Eagles running game (or lack thereof) will be too much of a hindrance to make the Super Bowl.

But with as good as the passing game is…maybe they have enough.

Going into today’s games the Jaguars and Broncos were in good position to get the wild card slots in the AFC.  But after both teams lost and most the 6-6 teams won the wild card race got a lot closer.

I (lucky me) got to watch the Lions-Ravens, Bengals-Vikings, and Chargers-Cowboys games today.  Because I live about 60 minutes north of Baltimore I actually had to watch the ENTIRE Ravens-Lions game.  Brutal.  And lets be honest the Vikings-Bengals game wasn’t much better.

While watching those games I noticed a few things….the Bengals aren’t going to beat anyone in the playoffs, the Lions suck, and the Chargers are quite possibly turning into the team to beat in the AFC.

Sure the Colts are still undefeated and will get homefield advantage throughout the playoffs but the Chargers have the talent and are playing the most complete football right now.  I am not saying that todays win was overly impressive, it wasn’t, but they have now won 8 in row and are in good position to get the #2 seed in the AFC.  Next week they welcome the Bengals to San Diego and after watching the Bungals today I would say they won’t challenge the Chargers next week too much.

In the NFC the Saints continued to roll albeit uncomfortably.  They haven’t looked great the past 2 weeks and really with the exception of the New England game they haven’t looked good in a couple months.  They do what they need to do to get the win and that is all that matters right now.  Today it was the depleted Falcons giving them fits taking the game down to the wire before the Saints won by 3.

If I was a Saints fan I would be a little worried at this point.  Sure they might get homefield advantage (need to win 2 more) but that might not be enough.  They just haven’t looked that good recently.  The defense is giving up yardage in chunks and they are starting to look like the Saints of the past couple years…outscore the opponents at all costs.

I think most of the appeal of the Saints defense this season has been that they score regularly but that isn’t always going to happen.  At some point they just need to man up and shut down an opposing offense.  So far this season they have only been able to do that in a couple games.  In their 13 games this season at this point they have held their opponent to under 20 points only 4 times.  For a defense that everyone claims is so good they can’t seem to get off the field.

This has got to be the best time of year for NFL fans though.  The next 2 months are incredible followed by 6 months of horrible boredom.  The playoff races are coming down to the wire…2 divisions are locked up (AFC and NFC South), 3 more are all but done (NFC and AFC North and NFC West), while 2 East divisions could come down to the final weekend.

And the wild card races??  They are going to be fun.  There are 8 teams in the AFC that are still alive while the NFC is a little less interesting as only 4 or 5 teams have a legitimate shot.  Tonight’s game between the Eagles and the Giants will either cloud the picture further or all but settle the NFC East.

First things first…I am not exactly great at this yet.  I am trying to let the wife let me gamble for real money but she insists that I can’t and won’t let me.  So I have been picking games the past 5 weeks to try and show her that I actually know what I am talking about.

Unfortunately I should have stopped after 2 weeks.  I started out 3-2, then went to 6-4, then to 8-7, and now I am 11-14 and would be in the red this season so far.

But that is all going to change over the next 4 weeks and the playoffs.  I will make it out of this season with a winning record or at least breaking even.

I have been picking 5 games each week and will continue to do so until the playoffs when I will instead just pick every game.

So here are my picks for week 14…..

Jets (-3) @ Bucs

First of all if you read my Power 12 page you will see that I like the Jets to actually win the division so winning this game is a must.  Second the Jets are 6-6 ATS this season and 3-3 on the road…nothing to write home about except that the Bucs are only 1-5 ATS at home.

Packers (-3) @ Bears

Really?  Only giving 3 points to the lowly Bears?  This surprises me a bit but when you look closer you can see that the Bears are actually better at home then on the road (3-3 ATS at home and 1-5 on the road) but the Packers are solid either place with a 7-4-1 ATS this season and 3-1-1 on the road.

Chargers (+3) @ Cowboys

If you look at the ATS records you will see that the Cowboys are 4-2 ATS at home while the Chargers are only 3-3 ATS on the road.  But call it a hunch I think the Cowboys implode down the stretch again this year.  Also remember that the Chargers are 5-2 in their last 7 ATS with the 2 losses in that stretch against Oakland in week 8 (-16.5) and Cleveland in week 13 (-13).

Cardinals (-3.5) @ 49ers

The 49ers are actually a very respectable 8-3-1 ATS this season.  But 5-0-1 of that are on the road.  At home they struggle a bit more and are still a solid 3-3 but the Cardinals are 4-2 ATS on the road.  Being that it is only 3.5 I feel confident in the Cards this week.

Dolphins (+2.5) @ Jaguars

This was my toughest pick of the week.  I looked at 9 of the 15 games for Sunday and Monday and this is one that I am more confident in compared to others but not by much.  Miami is 3-3 ATS on the road while the Jags are just 2-4 ATS at home.

So there you go…those are my picks.   Hopefully I can go at least 4-1 and get back to .500 on the season but I am obviously shooting for 5-0.   Oh and I just realized that I took all road teams this week.  Not sure what that means but oh well.

Last night in Cleveland the defending Super Bowl champions pretty much sabotaged their own quest of returning to the playoffs.  Losing to the Browns (the now 2-11 Browns) 13-6 to drop to 6-7 and now they are looking up at the rest of the wild card contenders.

Yes you read that right….the Steelers lost to the Browns for the first time in almost 7 years.  Prior to last night the Steelers had won 12 straight over the Browns.  A win and they are sitting at 7-6 and in control of their own fate.  Now they are 6-7 and need help to have a shot.

Luckily they will have a shot.  But they need help.  Right now Denver, Baltimore, Jacksonville, Miami, and New York are all ahead of the Steelers in the race for the 2 wild card spots.  And depending on the outcomes this week Houston could also be up there.

With games coming up against Green Bay, Baltimore, and Miami the Steelers better figure out what is wrong quickly or they will be done for the year.  They pretty much have to win out and then get help just to have a shot although winning out would be helping themselves too as both Baltimore and Miami are currently ahead of them in the standings.

If you are a Steelers fan you need to start scoreboard watching this Sunday.  I can’t even begin to tell you what to root for and what not to root for at this point.  Basically just hope everything falls the right way.

Previously I wrote at the same URL on a blogger template.  Now I have moved to a Wordpress template and have made some changes.

First of all this will mainly be a NFL blog.  Occasionally I might mention another sport depending on the headlines of the day but overall this is all NFL all the time.

Second all of my old posts are staying where they are…which is here if you want to see them.  I have decided to make a fresh start and well that is what I am doing.

Third this is only me here.  At the old Jumping Offsides I had a coauther and cohost of the podcast…Verb…but he is no longer writing with me.  He might add a guest post once in a while or join me for a podcast sometime but for now it is just me.

Fourth…well there really isn’t anything new.  I hope to post here with substantial regularity…meaning daily.  I plan to have certain topics covered certain days and will let you know more about that when I know more about that.  I do have a page listed at the top there (Power 12) that you should check out.  It is updated as of today and will be updated weekly for the remainder of the season.  It is my version of power rankings although not really the same as what you might expect.

Other than that just enjoy what I write…comment often…and lets have some fun.